What most people believe about climate change is heavily influenced by local weather fluctuations, according to a new study conducted by Tatyana Deryugina, a professor of finance in the College of Business. 

The study shows that abnormally high or low temperatures that last from a month to a year have a significant effect on beliefs about the existence of global warming. However, abnormal temperatures that last one day to two weeks were not found to have any effect on beliefs.

Deryugina is a member of the Center for Business and Public Policy, which works on issues such as the environment and health care. 

The data on climate change beliefs was collected from Gallup polls, which surveyed about 8,000 people from 2003-2010. The survey responses were compared with weather data for the respondents’ county of residence. 

Any person who bases his or her belief on observed local changes will be misinformed about the true state of climate change, Deryugina said.  

“In some ways, the pessimistic way of interpreting these results is that we’re not going to be motivated to do much about climate change until we start seeing their effects,” she said.

Atul Jain, a professor of climate and climate change in the department of atmospheric sciences, said the results show that people are not informed about climate change. Climate change is much more complicated than something people can observe happening in their local weather, he said.

“One could learn about the knowledge gap from this study,” Jain said.

There is little disagreement among scientists concerning the existence of climate change, but public beliefs are far more varied. While the overwhelming majority of scientists think that climate change is happening, and humans are causing it, only 56.3 percent of the 7,847 people surveyed in the Gallup poll believe the effects of global warming have begun.

Deryugina said the Gallup data indicated that people usually did not think their beliefs contradicted what scientists thought. Respondents who thought climate change was happening said they thought scientists said the same, while people who thought climate change was a hoax were very likely to believe that scientists were unsure about the occurrence of global warming.

Deryugina is currently working on another study that will explore how people’s beliefs change when they are informed about the consensus in the scientific community.

She believes public belief in climate change is important for changes counteracting global warming to be made. 

“Any greenhouse gas law that’s going to make its way to Congress is going to be heavily scrutinized by the public, so public perception is very important,” she said. “You’re going to need some degree of public consensus to make progress.”

Jain said it is important that changes be made as soon as possible to impede the effects of climate change, and that it is crucial for people to be informed and aware of what is happening.

“We have to educate people about the impacts of climate change,” he said.

Eric can be reached at [email protected].