OPINIONS BLOG: Primary predictions

By Andrew Mason

It’s all about the negatives!

Negative advertising, negative poll numbers, and negative temperatures.

The dogfight between former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney is going to leave both of them bruised. This matters more for Romney because of the millions he’s spent in the Hawkeye state may be for naught if he can’t use an Iowa victory to spark his national poll numbers. Right now, Mitt and Huck are bunched together with Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson with the latest Rasmussen poll putting the five of them within 5 points of each other.

I think nobody “wins” Iowa and this benefits John McCain in New Hampshire. After a round of newspaper endorsements and a return to the strategy that let him upset George W. Bush in 2000, McCain will reintroduce himself as the other viable national candidate. It’s common knowledge that neither Rudy or McCain are favorites of the GOP. But McCain is pro-life, a military veteran, has more foreign policy experience and is the only Republican that polls indicate will be able to defeat Hillary Clinton in a general election. He’s been the maverick for quite awhile but I think GOP voters will hold their noses and choose McCain over a socially liberal Rudy. If the sun sets on Rudy in the Sunshine state, Super Duper Tuesday has only a slim chance of reviving the mayor’s chances.

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