Long, unpredictable road still ahead for Illinois basketball

Big Ten Network’s featured show during conference play is called “The Journey,” and it’s aptly named.

Conference play is a grind, a haul, a marathon — it’s whatever gritty adjective you can think of. It’s 18 games where any team top to bottom can win on any given night. Lowly Rutgers beat Wisconsin two weeks ago, in case you needed any extra convincing. Road wins should count as double, because escaping a hostile Big Ten arena is a rare occurrence, even for conference contenders. 

As Illinois has seen so far, conference play truly is a journey, and it’s one with highs and lows. The Illini schedule was front-loaded with four road games in its first five, with the lone home matchup coming against then-No. 11 Maryland. Dan Dakich, the former Indiana player and coach who now regularly calls Big Ten games on ESPN, said he had never seen anything like the Illini’s scheduling misfortune to begin the season. 

As if Big Ten play wasn’t challenging enough, the basketball gods dropped a bombshell on the Illini two games into the conference season: leading scorer Rayvonte Rice would miss several weeks with a broken left hand. The news came just as Illinois’ season was flirting with major disappointment, when a team with high expectations was struggling to find its way. 

Illinois head coach John Groce did some impressive things in Champaign in his first two seasons, but his Big Ten record of 15-21 in that time was not something he’d put at the top of a resume. A huge contributor to the conference woes was a combined 3-12 record in the month of January, which is when the Big Ten season kicks into gear. Rice’s injury came in early January, at a time when his team was already 0-2 to begin Groce’s third Big Ten season. The “freak accident” of an injury seemed like a death sentence for the team. 

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But the hallmark of Groce’s teams has always been resiliency, and they knocked off the 11th-ranked Terps two days after Rice went down. The win may have saved their season, as they now sit at 2-4 six games into conference play, still very much alive for an NCAA tournament bid. 

Unlike Groce’s first two seasons, Illinois will almost certainly have to finish above .500 in the Big Ten this year if they want to receive an at-large bid to the Big Dance. So the Illini will need a minimum of 10 Big Ten wins, and they currently have eight to go. How will their path play out the rest of the way?

Wisconsin is the favorite to finish at the top, but the rest of the conference seems wide open. Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State and Indiana have all shown flashes of brilliance so far, but where the chips fall in the end is anyone’s guess. When it comes to those six teams, the Illini face only Michigan State twice, and the rest just once. They play weaker foes such as Purdue, Penn State and Northwestern twice each.

But conference play is so unpredictable. Wisconsin’s talented point guard Traevon Jackson suffered a broken foot that will sideline him for at least six weeks, which could have significant implications on the Big Ten race. Not many people saw Maryland’s rise coming, and it currently sits at 17-2, 5-1 Big Ten. Upsets have become the norm; Illinois could beat Wisconsin then lose to Northwestern, and it would pretty much be par for the course. 

Rice’s injury and murky timetable for a return just adds an extra layer of uncertainty to what promises to be an intense and stressful next two months. And with the winner of the Big Ten tournament in March receiving an automatic NCAA bid, no team’s season is truly dead.

Groce likes to use boxing metaphors during press conferences while articulating his team’s performance. Basketball games are described as fights, heavyweight boxing matches where teams take swings at each other until only one is left standing.

Rice’s injury could have been a knockout blow, but Groce won’t make any excuses for his team’s fate the rest of the way. 

I think it’s appropriate to assume that when March rolls around, Illini coaches, players and fans expect to have a puncher’s chance at the Dance.  

Alex is a junior in AHS. He can be reached at [email protected] and

@aroux94.