Professors study Pakistan earthquake
December 1, 2005
Two University professors and a graduate student traveled to Pakistan between Nov. 6 and 16 to research the damages and recovery methods caused by the magnitude 7.6 earthquake on Oct. 8.
The group, sponsored by the Mid-America Earthquake Center, also included a professor from Rice University and from University of Illinois at Chicago. They will release a quick-look report as an overview analysis of the research on Dec. 5.
“We’re trying to learn from the event so we can prepare for the future,” said Amr Elnashai, professor of Engineering and director of the Mid-America Earthquake Center.
When the earthquakes in Pakistan occurred, the Mid-America Earthquake Center looked at characteristics similar to those that could occur along the New Madrid Seismic zone that runs through the Midwest. According to Elnashai, the U.S. Geological Survey predicts an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 along New Madrid. It does not predict a time or location for the earthquake. Like Pakistan, buildings in the Midwest are not designed to withstand earthquakes.
“You can see the importance of the need in areas with seismic zones that we build buildings that can resist traumatic shaking,” said Youssef Hashash, professor in Engineering. “(Pakistan) is not much unlike what we have in mid-America, where we do anticipate shaking.”
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After Hurricane Katrina, civilian displacement due to natural disasters became a concern in the United States. The destruction in Pakistan left approximately 3 million people homeless. According to Elnashai, observing Pakistan’s response with temporary housing and supplies can help the United States in terms of displacement management.
In Pakistan, one tectonic plate is hitting into another, causing a shrinkage that averages 18 millimeters a year. The ground must break to release this pressure. According to Elnashai, it is estimated that four earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.4 or higher will be needed to balance the pressure. The land likely to be effected is further south and east, near Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad.
“We’re using this information to increase awareness in Pakistan, and we’re also trying to have a U.S.-Pakistan program for risk protection,” Elnashai said.
The program will begin in Islamabad in January, preparing for Pakistan’s reconstruction on March 30. Elnashai hopes the program will influence the country to rebuild damaged areas in a different way.
“There was no proper design code in that area,” said Sung Jig Kim, graduate student. “To prepare for the next earthquake, they need the proper design code and construction skill.”
According to Hashash, the rebuilding must be applied easily and inexpensively to accommodate the country’s resources.
“It is possible to have very simple, common-sense rules to follow in design that they may not protect 100 percent of infrastructure, but may protect 80 percent,” Elnashai said about the instructions that are not mathematically based. “It may sound unscientific, but I think this is the way forward.”
The research in Pakistan was the Mid-America Earthquake Center’s 17th mission covering a major earthquake around the world. In two to three months, the group will release an extensive analysis of the Pakistan earthquakes, focusing on two major bridges and buildings.