Following their setback in the 2008 election, Republicans are looking for answers to gain back seats in Congress. Brian Gaines, an Institute of Government and Public Affairs staff member and political science professor, sat down with the Daily Illini to investigate the problems and future of the GOP on a national scale.

DI: A Democrat is in the White House and the Democrats control both houses of Congress. Did the Republicans have it coming to them?

BG: It is a natural tendency for party rotation. This country does not have long-stretches of party dominance. So it was not surprising that the Republicans lost some steam by losing seats in Congress and the presidency. In Congress they drifted away from their original message a bit. I wouldn’t really say John McCain deserved to lose because of Bush’s presidency. It was not the curse of Bush.

DI: Is President Bush responsible for the decline of Republicans in Congress?

BG: I don’t think so. The House Republicans are their own worst enemies. They lost because of the public perception that they became corrupt. The Mark Foley scandal was skillfully portrayed for people to get scared. The timing of the election was poor for House Republicans. They also lost for sense of being consistently conservative. Iraq was President Bush’s project. Republicans spent a lot of money on the war in Congress, but that isn’t the president’s job. There’s blame to go around.

DI: The media and Americans are obsessed with Obama’s every move from vacationing to taking his kids out on Halloween. Does this make the Republicans look “uncool” by social standards?

BG: I don’t think so. Barack is an interesting figure and always will be. Beyond that, there is an unusual high level of favorable media coverage for Obama. It has gotten to the point to be fondling. Democrats can ride Barack’s coattails because he’s young and plays basketball, but it won’t last. He will have a problem after a while. He can’t blame problems on Bush and the economy. Democrats just don’t strike me as terribly cool.

DI: President Bush ran as a compassionate conservative and grabbed the voters loyal to the Bible. Are the Republicans going to have to re-write their strategy in order to once again gain power in Congress?

BG: In the next four years they will have to debate what part of their message is appealing. Did they lose the election badly because of their message or credibility as messengers? I don’t think there will be a radical overhaul. Republicans are obviously more socially conservative. Parties have been well sorted on abortion and it will stay that way. There is a tendency to overstate that the Republicans are on the wrong side of a social issue.

DI: If Obama’s first term in office is deemed very successful, then who will the Republicans pick as his opposing candidate?

BG: Whether successful or not, I don’t think anybody is likely in the next two years to emerge as the likely nominee. I’m guessing it will be a governor. Historically speaking, Republicans have proven to get second chances. Look at McCain and Reagan. I can see Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani building strength in the grassroots in the next four years. I would also guess Tim Pawlenty, Mark Sanford or maybe Bobby Jindal from Louisiana. I would not count out Sarah Palin either. She took a beating from the media but she proved her ability to excite the grassroots of her party.

DI: Will the Democrats be able to easily push their agenda in Congress with a low Republican presence?

BG: I think Democrats will disagree amongst themselves. For the first year Obama will have his way, even when there is grumbling in Senate. By his second year I’m not sure if that will be true. Democrats will be worried about re-election and you might see tension between Pelosi and Obama. Also, House minorities have always been weak. In the Senate, that’s less true. The Senate is a different kind of institution. Senate Republicans can potentially slow things down and pick their battles. It’s important for the Republicans that Mitch McConnell won. He is skilled and understands Senate rules.

DI: Can you compare today’s situation in Washington to other eras in history?

BG: People are throwing around rhetoric about the economy and comparing him to FDR. We hear that we’re in for huge changes in policy. I’m not so sure about that. The country is richer than it was in the 1930s. We’re not on the verge of 30 percent unemployment. I don’t see Obama shaking things up dramatically. He’s talking about a huge stimulus but that’s a campaign policy. That’s not redesigning in any way. I don’t think we will see something like Democratic hegemony where they win everything.