Illinois men’s basketball had a historic run and reached the Final Four for the first time in 21 years. According to the Flutie effect, the success will increase Illinois’ record-high application numbers once again.
In 1984, Boston College quarterback Doug Flutie threw a 48-yard Hail Mary pass for a game-winning touchdown against Miami. Just two years later, the application numbers for Boston College increased by 30%.
Since then, the phenomenon that refers to the impact of a school’s athletic program on growing applicant numbers has been dubbed the “Flutie effect.”
Doug J. Chung studied the effect in 2013, focusing on sports success stories prior to then.
After winning the Big Ten championship in 1995, Northwestern University’s application rates rose by 21%. In 2000, Texas Christian University breached the AP Top 25 football rankings for the first time in more than 40 years. In the following eight years, it saw a 105% uptick in application numbers.
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Chung found that on average, when a school had a breakout season in football, their applications increased by 18.7%.
Over the past 30 years, though, the college application process has changed. Now, with the Common App, students can easily apply to multiple colleges with little to no additional work, meaning some students apply to more colleges with less research than before.
Due to these changes, the Flutie effect may be less impactful today than it was before.
Still, some believe the Flutie effect continues today. Forbes found that 12 of 16 teams in the 2023 Sweet 16 had an increase in applications after the performance.
Chancellor Charles Lee Isbell Jr. said in a University Senate Executive Committee meeting in March that the Illini’s success will bolster application numbers, among other areas.
“When we do well, in all of those things that we’re doing, including athletics … we will see an increase in the number of applications,” Isbell said while discussing the Final Four appearance. “We will see an impact on fundraising. We will see an impact on a host of things.”
But it’s difficult to directly attribute successful March Madness runs as the reason for upticks in application numbers, especially since application numbers are consistently increasing. From the 2023-24 application cycle to the 2024-25 application cycle, there was a 5% increase in the number of applications across the Common App, according to Education Week.
A look at recent Final Four schools’ application numbers
Since most college applications are due before March, it is not until the following application cycle that a successful March Madness run might have an effect. For example, a team in the Final Four in this year’s tournament — like Illinois — would see potential growth in applications in the 2026-27 application cycle.
Colleges normally release application numbers at the start of the fall semester, so most likely, the Illini’s Final Four appearance’s effect on application numbers — or lack thereof — will not be seen until Fall 2027.
For the same reasons, the impacts of triumphant teams in the 2025 NCAA tournament on applicant numbers are still unclear. To understand the most recent impacts, The Daily Illini looked at the Final Four teams from the 2024 tournament: Alabama, UConn, NC State and Purdue.
Alabama saw an upturn in its 2024-25 application numbers following its Final Four appearance. Notably, the year prior, Alabama had a decrease in its applicants. The year after its appearance in the Final Four, Alabama’s application numbers changed back to a positive trend. Once again, it received a record number of applicants, with 61,994 total.
UConn had approximately 62,000 applicants in its 2024-25 cycle, a 4,000-person increase from the year before — almost a 7% surge.
It’s not necessarily indicative of their March Madness appearance, though. For one, the team has consistently won games in the tournament, coming out on top of the entire thing in both 2023 and 2024. On top of that, UConn has experienced an increasing number of applicants for at least the past four years.
NC State’s application numbers closely echo UConn’s trend.
In the 2024-25 cycle, NC State had 49,350 applicants, a more than 12% uptick from the previous year. Again, it has seen similar increases since the 2021-22 application cycle.
Purdue also experienced a record-breaking number of applications after making it to the final of the 2024 tournament. Its 86,953 applications, while record-breaking, marked the 14th consecutive year of record application numbers.
Alabama was the only 2024 Final Four team that experienced a change in trend in application numbers. All four schools’ applications increased, but it is impossible to determine whether those increases were because of their March Madness success or just reflect the increase in college applications across the nation.
It’s difficult to say whether the Final Four appearance will make an impact on Illinois’ application numbers. However, given the trend over the past few years, the University is likely to see another record-breaking number of applications for its 2026-27 cycle.
Flutie effect on transfer portal
In Mid-American Conference commissioner Jon Steinbrecher’s view, the Flutie effect is shifting to the transfer portal. While universities may no longer see as drastic an increase in applications that Chung’s study found, their popularity and success tie directly to players in the transfer portal.
After the NCAA’s change to the transfer portal in 2021, which allowed college athletes to switch schools without sitting out for a year, colleges have focused on building their teams one year at a time.
Now, being successful in March Madness is an additional draw for prospective transfer athletes.
“People want to go where there is success,” Steinbrecher said to ABC5. “They want to go somewhere where they can win.”
For Illinois, the transfer portal helped reshape the 2025-26 roster. Juniors Andrej Stojaković and Zvonimir Ivišić were both incoming transfers.
On the flip side, Illinois lost sophomore Morez Johnson Jr. to Michigan, where he helped the team become national champions. Three other Illini also transferred to different universities.
With the team’s makeup constantly shifting, it’s possible that the Illini’s Final Four appearance might make some players in the transfer portal gravitate toward the University — possibly the “new” Flutie effect. The University may also see an increase in applications in the following cycle, but it will be hard to say if the Flutie effect is the cause.
