Illini need to win down stretch to keep bowl dream alive
October 17, 2008
The first half of the season ended in a lackluster fashion. Fans filed out of the stadium before the game against Minnesota was finished. Gopher players mocked Illini fans by waving their towels from the sidelines. Plus there was that whole Illini losing thing.
The Illini now have a record of 3-3 (1-2 in the Big Ten). While that doesn’t look too bad, let me put it to you this way: Minnesota is already bowl eligible.
Does that makes sense? No. We’re currently watching bizzaro Big Ten football with Michigan and Wisconsin at the bottom while Minnesota and Northwestern only have one loss.
I’m sure you don’t want to read about Juice playing well, the defense’s woes and my continuous crusade against the coaching staff’s play-calling. Instead, I want to answer the question on everyone’s mind: How can this team make it to a bowl game?
Even though the Illini have already played arguably their two toughest opponents, the remaining schedule is going to be surprisingly difficult and another bowl appearance is anything but assured.
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Indiana
Indiana has taken a major step backward and Illinois needs this game to get back on track.
For most teams, playing a struggling opponent is a good thing. But Illinois has proven all season that it plays up and down to its opponents, and Indiana is definitely a down team. Expect the Illini to comply.
Sadly, this is actually a must-win game for Ron Zook if his team has any hopes of challenging for the conference title or sneaking into a BCS game.
Yes, I just used “must-win game” talking about Indiana, but that’s the reality, people.
Prediction: Win
At Wisconsin
The Badgers have been in free fall after dropping their first three conference games. While it appears their Big Ten title chances are over, this is still one of the most talented teams in the conference.
The real key to this game is the Badgers rushing game, which is averaging 200.1 yards per game. The Illini have the second-worst rush defense in the Big Ten, and I’m sure the Badgers are already dreaming of pounding the ball between the tackles.
If the Badgers have success on the ground controlling the clock, it’s going to be hard to get that explosive Illini offense on the field. The defensive line is going to need to play like the strength of this team (as it was touted by Zook before the season) if Illinois wants to win. I just don’t see that happening.
Prediction: Loss
Iowa
Iowa has quietly put together one of the best defenses in the conference by giving up only 76 points all season.
Where did this come from? I have no idea, but the Hawkeyes could make this game interesting. Iowa has yet to beat a quality team, but Illinois is on severe upset alert if it takes the Hawkeyes lightly.
For those of you that followed the team last year, there is a bit of a revenge factor here for Illinois, so let’s see if the team (and the fans) get fired up for this one. They’ll need it.
Prediction: Win
Western Michigan (at Detroit)
Everyone has been complaining about this game. Why do the Illini have to play Western Michigan? Why isn’t this game being played in Champaign? What was athletic director Ron Guenther sipping on when he scheduled this and where can I get some?
Regardless of the reasons for this game’s existence, Western Michigan has the top passing offense in the MAC and is averaging 32.4 points per game.
The fact that this game will be played indoors at Ford Field should favor the Illini. Since Juice Williams has been starting quarterback, Illinois is 2-2 indoors but also averaging 40.2 points in those games.
Expect a shootout.
Prediction: Win
Ohio State
Like Wisconsin, the Buckeyes are all defense complemented by a strong running game. The biggest difference, however, is at quarterback, where freshman Terrelle Pryor is already becoming a game breaker.
If all holds true in my predictions, Illinois will be bowl eligible with six wins at this point, but that doesn’t guarantee it anything – although I find it hard to believe a bowl committee would leave the Illini at home.
Regardless, this will be the biggest home game all season. Again, the pressure will be on the defensive line to stop the run and again they will most likely fail unless significant improvements are made.
Prediction: Loss
Northwestern
Depending on the records, this game could be huge for both teams.
The way I have it, Illinois will be sitting at 6-5. A win would give them seven wins and solidify a bowl berth.
My biggest concern here is Illinois’ motivation to play at the top of their game. Ryan Field holds 47,130 people, but the Wildcats have been struggling to fill half of that this season, averaging only 23,418 a game.
How will the Illini play in what is basically a glorified high school stadium?
Prediction: Win
So at the end of the season, it looks like a 7-5 (4-2 second half) finish for Illinois and a berth to the Insight Bowl in Arizona or the Motor City Bowl in Detroit. It’s not as glamorous as Pasadena, but neither is losing to Minnesota on Homecoming.
While I think the second half of the schedule is more favorable to the Illini than the first, keep in mind that a loss to Indiana, Iowa, Western Michigan or Northwestern could end any bowl dreams really fast.
So don’t get your hopes up.
Kyle Betts is a graduate student. He can be reached at [email protected].