NFL draft expert shares knowledge

By Jim Shay

The countdown to this year’s “Mr. Irrelevant” will begin Saturday afternoon, as the 2009 NFL Draft assembles the league’s newest class of rookies. Scott Wright, who has evaluated the NFL Draft for more than 15 years as founder and president of Draftcountdown.com, recently spoke with The Daily Illini about who he thinks should go No. 1, the apples, oranges (and Crabtrees) of this year’s wide receiver class, and where “Beanie” will land on draft day.

Daily Illini: There has been some doubt circulating about how well Matthew Stafford’s accuracy will translate over to the NFL. How hit or miss is he as a No. 1-overall pick? Should Lions fans be concerned that Stafford is the next coming of Joey Harrington?

Scott Wright: It’s a problem if the Lions have that attitude, because what if the Falcons had let Michael Vick’s failure stop them from taking Matt Ryan last year? What if the Ravens had let Kyle Boller stop them from taking Joe Flacco? That’s not the right attitude to go with. The Lions need a franchise player. (Wake Forest linebacker) Aaron Curry can be a very good player, and it’s not like he’s Lawrence Taylor; he’s never going to be that type of player, but he can come in, and he’ll be a 10-year starter but he’s not changing a franchise. He’s a piece to a good team. He’s not an impact player, and that’s the bottom line. You look at the Seattle Seahawks last year, they had three Pro-Bowl quality linebackers, and they won four games because their quarterback got hurt. Everything comes back to the quarterback in the NFL, and unless you have a quarterback you’re just treading water. So I don’t think there’s any question that the Lions should and will take Matthew Stafford No. 1.”

DI: Considering the playmaking buzz Percy Harvin generated during his time at Florida, what’s going to determine his landing spot on draft day and the impact he has at the next level?

SW: “He could basically play running back more than he played wide receiver in college, which is going to be a huge adjustment in terms of getting used to playing wide receiver, running pro-style routes, playing in a pro-style offense. There are durability concerns, he’s never been able to stay healthy, and major, major character issues, dating all the way back to his high school days. He got kicked out off high school sports in the state of Virginia for arguing with an official, bumping an official and a number of other incidents. He got in fights with teammates in college, and now he just failed a drug test at the scouting combine. So I think Percy Harvin is going to fall out of the first round all together, even though he’s one of the top-10 talents in this draft.”

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DI: Every once in a while there’s a highly athletic quarterback who emerges in the draft, along the lines of an Antwaan Randle El or Eric Crouch, with no real clear cut position in the NFL. Do you see Pat White following in the footsteps of those hybrid players?

SW: “At one point we were looking at Pat White as the next Antwaan Randle El, but he doesn’t want to do that. He’s made it very clear throughout this entire process that he wants to be considered a quarterback. He does not want to be a wide receiver, he does not want to be a return man, and he didn’t work at either of those positions at the scouting combine. He didn’t work at either position at the Senior Bowl, and, personally, if you consider him strictly as a quarterback, I think he’s a fifth- or sixth-round pick. It’s when you start factoring him contributing in those other areas that he goes in the second or third round. But I would have a hard time taking somebody in the second or third round when three-quarters of that is based on him contributing as a wideout and return man when he has shown no inclination to do it. If anything, he’s been adamantly against it. I think Pat White is one of the most overrated players in this draft, and I just don’t see him being able to play quarterback in the NFL. If he makes it, he’ll be the only one, because there’s no other quarterback like him in the NFL in terms of size. No other 5-foot-11 quarterbacks play in the NFL.”

DI: With Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree sitting atop most wide receiver boards, is it simply a matter of what type of receiver a team wants or is one a clear step above the other?

SW: “It’s basically just different flavors, like apples and oranges, because they’re just different kinds of players. There’s not as much separating them as a lot of people think. Most teams have Crabtree as the top wide receiver in the draft, but Jeremy Maclin is a top-10 talent, as well. There is definitely a chance that Jeremy Maclin could be selected before Michael Crabtree.”

DI: As the Big Ten’s top offensive prospect in the draft, where do you see Ohio State’s Chris “Beanie” Wells landing on Saturday?

SW: “Personally, I think Wells is one of the top-10 to 12 players in this whole draft. However, if the New Orleans Saints don’t take him at No. 14 he could really drop, simply because there are not many teams that have a big need at running back this year. Last year was one of the best running back classes in a long time, and most teams already drafted to their issues at that position a year ago. So Wells could fall to the end of the first round, maybe to a team like Arizona at No. 31, and if he does fall that far he’s going to be a steal.”