With the college football regular season almost halfway through, the College Football Playoff has begun to take shape. After big losses from Alabama and Tennessee, Texas sits atop the rankings. There are three Big Ten teams in the top four and six total in the top 25. So, what does the current CFP look like? And what are Illinois’ chances for a playoff spot?
First things first, a quick review of the new College Football Playoff format. The new format includes 12 teams now instead of four. The four Power 4 conference champions — Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 — get an automatic bid to the playoffs and a first-round bye. The top-ranked mid-major champion also receives an automatic entry. The other seven seeds will be the next highest-ranked teams.
As of right now, the top four seeds, in order, would be No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 6 Miami and No. 11 Iowa State. These are the highest-ranked teams from the top conferences. In the new 12-team playoff format, there are still eight seeds available.
One of these spots would go to the top mid-major conference champion. The No. 17 Boise State Broncos are in that spot right now, led by one of the best running backs in college football. Based on the current rankings, the final seven teams would be No. 3 Oregon, No. 4 Penn State, No. 5 Georgia, No. 7 Alabama, No. 8 Tennessee, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 10 Clemson.
The big story this week is the upset victories of Vanderbilt over No. 1 Alabama and Arkansas over No. 4 Tennessee. If top teams like Alabama can be taken down by a team like Vanderbilt, it leaves the playoffs much more open than previously thought. One upset can cause a huge shift. Those losses caused Alabama to drop six spots and Tennessee to drop four spots.
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If more top teams prove to be vulnerable, the lesser-ranked teams, like Illinois, could have a better shot at rising in the rankings. The more upsets, the bigger the shift in rankings and College Football Playoff seeding.
Of course, the playoff teams are going to change throughout the season. There is always the possibility that the committee will vote for a different team as well. As of right now though, there are three Big Ten teams in the mix to be in the playoffs. It has always been a tough conference, but this year might be one of the most challenging in recent memory. With three top-four teams and six total ranked teams, the title for Big Ten champion is far from decided. Where does that leave Illinois?
No. 23 Illinois is sitting at 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten. To even think about the playoffs, Illinois would likely have to win 10 games. The rest of the teams Illinois will face are in the conference. Only two ranked teams remain on their schedule. If they win all but those games, they will finish the season at nine wins and five in the Big Ten.
They’ll need to beat No. 24 Michigan or No. 3 Oregon, to finish with 10 wins. Beating Oregon is a tall task. Victory over a top-three team would more than likely boost Illinois up into the top 15, especially with their only loss to a currently top-four program. The higher the rank, the better the chance they have of getting one of those eight playoff seeds.
Of course, if they can win out, they would be a lock for a playoff spot. They’d have wins over Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan, Oregon and likely Ohio State. When you say it out loud, winning out is pretty wishful thinking, but you never know.
Most people didn’t have the Illini at 4-1 and ranked coming into Week 7. Even if they aren’t in playoff contention, they are only two wins away from being bowl-game eligible, which is an improvement on last season.
@Ben_some16