After the Dutch Grand Prix, Max Verstappen was 104 points off the championship lead. Since then, the Dutchman has been on a rampage, which culminated in a spectacle at the Qatar Grand Prix on Sunday.
A lap seven safety car triggered 17 out of the 19 cars to pit. The only two cars that stayed out were the McLarens. This fumble, bundled with the 25-lap maximum rule for Qatar, set up a chaotic race.
It led to Verstappen winning his seventh race of the season and being only 12 points behind the championship leader. With a race to go, Verstappen has shaved 92 points off his deficit. Now, all roads lead to Abu Dhabi.
Title fight
Earlier this year, the title fight seemed to be between two drivers. Fans were disappointed that a season that promised so much was delivering only an inter-team battle. Now, there are three in contention going into the final race of the season.
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In the modern era, championship fights don’t frequently go down to the final race of the season. The last time this happened was in 2021. Before that, it was 2016. Sunday’s grand prix around the Yas Marina Circuit will be the first since 2010 to feature a three-way fight. 16 points stand between the three contenders after a season of ups and downs.
Oscar Piastri, P3: 392 points
About two-thirds of Oscar Piastri’s season was near flawless. McLaren’s “Iceman” kept putting in perfect weekends one after another. He emerged as a title contender, if not the favorite, by the summer break in only his third season.
Best race: Belgian Grand Prix
As Spa-Francorchamps so often does, it threw in rain to make an already challenging circuit even more difficult. After four laps behind the safety car to start the race, Piastri immediately jumped Lando Norris to take the lead. He kept his foot down in wet conditions through Eau de Rouge and made sure not to overcommit. This let him be faster through Raidillon and overtake Norris for the lead.
He then made his medium tyres work for 32 laps in tricky conditions to win the race. Belgium was arguably his best win of the season and was the moment where his championship campaign looked like a real possibility.
Worst race: Azerbaijan Grand Prix
At the Italian Grand Prix, Norris and Piastri were running second and third, respectively, as their pit window neared. McLaren pitted Piastri first and delivered a 5.9-second stop for Norris. This meant Piastri was able to undercut his teammate and run in second. The team believed this was unfair to Norris and asked both cars to swap positions. Arguably, this was the beginning of the end of Piastri’s title run.
At the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Piastri crashed in Q3 and only managed to qualify ninth. The Aussie then jumped the start and dropped down to last on the grid. This misery lasted barely half a lap as he crashed out on the opening lap. Baku was when cracks first appeared in what had been a bulletproof run from Piastri.
Max Verstappen, P2: 396 points
After the first three races in 2022, Verstappen was 46 points behind Charles Leclerc. He went on to overcome what was the largest deficit in Formula 1 history to be the world champion. This season, he was as far back as 04 points behind.
Best race: Japanese Grand Prix
McLaren started the season firing on all cylinders. It won the first two races fairly comfortably. But Verstappen put on a driving clinic at the Japanese Grand Prix.
With a shiny new livery, Verstappen grabbed pole by the slimmest of margins — 0.012 seconds — and led in 42 of the 53 laps. He only won by 1.423 seconds and had to work hard throughout the race to keep a quick Norris behind.
Worst race: Spanish Grand Prix
It can be argued whether Emilia-Romagna, Italy or United States was his best race, but the Spanish Grand Prix was unequivocally his worst, and it could cost him the championship.
Red Bull Racing decided to put Verstappen on a three-stop strategy. This would have benefited him if the leaders hadn’t pitted for new soft tyres anyway. Crucially, a late safety car shook things up, prompting most of the leading cars to pit again. Verstappen had to pit too, but he only had hard tyres left.
To his dismay, Red Bull put him on hards for the final stint. This put him at a disadvantage at the safety car restart and resulted in Leclerc overtaking him. Things got worse as Mercedes’ George Russell then made contact with the Dutchman and pushed him off the track. Verstappen stayed ahead, but the stewards noted this incident and were investigating it. Red Bull asked its driver to let Russell through.
Verstappen reluctantly agreed, but while letting Russell through, he decided otherwise and made contact to stay ahead. This earned him a 10-second penalty, dropping him down to tenth and getting him only one point. Had he finished fifth, he would have scored 10 points. This 9-point loss can turn out to be crucial when it’s all said and done on Sunday.
Lando Norris, P1: 408 points
The championship leader, the driver most likely to take what would be his maiden championship, Norris, has quietly put together an impressive second half of the season.
Norris’ engine gave up at Zandvoort, which resulted in a 34-point deficit to his teammate. Many fans and experts thought the championship was done. Despite Norris only winning two of the next eight races, his consistency means he is in pole position to win the championship.
Best race: Sao Paulo Grand Prix
At the 2024 Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Verstappen stormed back from P17 to win the race. Norris, who started on pole, made one mistake after another and finished sixth, thus ending his championship hopes. This year, the story was different.
Norris took Sprint pole and kept a very quick Kimi Antonelli behind to secure Sprint win in a wet race. He then took pole position for the main race while his teammate managed fourth.
With Verstappen charging through the field again, 2024 could very easily have played in his mind. But Norris kept his head down and secured one of the most impressive wins of his career. He has done everything right in the season’s home stretch, and if not for McLaren’s fumbles at Las Vegas and Qatar, he would have already been champion.
Worst race: Canadian Grand Prix
The Canadian Grand Prix was the first race of the season where McLaren was off the pace. It was also the first of only three races where neither car finished on the podium. Consequently, Piastri and Norris battled for fourth place for a couple of laps. With four laps to go, Piastri managed to stay ahead by outbraking Norris at the final corners.
The battle continued into lap 67, where Norris went into the back of Piastri’s car a little too hot and broke his front wing and front left tyre. This resulted in him not finishing the race and dropping 10 points to Piastri.
How can each driver win the championship?
If Norris finishes third or higher, the other two contenders’ finishing positions become irrelevant and he will be crowned champion. But, he can also finish out of the points and would need Verstappen to be fourth or lower and Piastri to be third or lower to win the championship.
For Verstappen, he has to finish on the podium to have a shot at the title. A win gives him the best chance, as Norris has to finish fourth or lower and Piastri would be out of the equation. Finishing third would mean Norris has to be ninth or lower and Piastri cannot do better than a second-place finish.
Piastri, who has led the title race for most of the season, has the slimmest of chances to be champion. If he wins the race and Norris finishes sixth or lower, Verstappen would be out of it and the Aussie would be champion. Finishing second would mean Norris cannot score more than one point and Verstappen needs to finish off the podium.
All roads lead to Abu Dhabi
When it began, this season promised a spicy championship battle. Halfway through it, there was only an inter-team battle on the cards. But a legendary final run of races from the four-time world champion has given fans a three-way battle at the final race for the first time in a decade and a half. Cherish it, it does not happen too often in Formula 1.
