Illinois (14-13, 6-6) has relied heavily on offense this season. It scored double-digit runs in eight games this year, winning seven of them. However, the Illini can’t seem to find sustained success on offense.
They often fall back to reality after an offensive outpouring. Five times Illinois scored 10 or more runs, it scored six or fewer runs the following game. Of course, double-digit scoring isn’t all that sustainable, but the Illini continue to fall flat after big performances.
The most recent example of this came just this past week. The Illini put up 16 runs against the Penn State Nittany Lions (8-18, 3-6) Saturday. In the series finale, they put up only six.
Then Illinois’ offense dropped the ball against Illinois State (19-10, 4-2) on Tuesday. It scored one run against a pitching staff that has a 5.02 ERA and has given up nearly six runs per game.
Now, the Illini head to West Lafayette, Indiana, to face off against the Purdue Boilermakers (19-9, 7-5). The weekend series holds big implications in the Big Ten standings.
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Big weekend incoming
Through 12 conference games, Illinois is .500 and tied with Washington. Purdue is just ahead of Illinois at No. 5. A series win would bump the Illini into the top five of the conference.
The good news for Illinois is that Purdue’s pitching isn’t all that strong. As a group, it has a 5.56 ERA. Just two pitchers have ERAs below 3.00. The probable starters for Purdue for this weekend — junior right-hander Cole Van Assen, senior lefty Zach Erdman and senior right-hander Austin Klug — all have at least 4.00 ERAs.
Van Assen, Friday’s starter, has a 5.20 ERA. He’s allowed 24 runs and struck out 29 in seven starts. His 36.1 innings pitched are a team high.
Erdman is slated to take the bump Saturday. He’s had a rocky season; he’s allowed one or fewer runs in three starts. However, he’s given up at least four earned runs in each of the other four starts. Erdman’s last outing was his worst, giving up eight runs — five earned — in just 1.1 innings.
Sunday’s starter, Klug, has the least starting experience of the three this season. However, he has a 4-1 record across 28 innings with a 4.82 ERA. Klug, as well as Van Assen and Erdman, has solid strikeout numbers.
Purdue has given up double-digit runs seven times this season and four times in the last seven games. However, Purdue did win two of those games, despite giving up 13 runs in both.
The Boilermaker’s bats have been hot all season. They rank in the top five in the Big Ten in most offensive categories, including hits, home runs, RBIs and batting average.
Senior infielder Sam Flores is far and away the hottest hitter on the Boilermakers. He’s batting .393 with 31 RBIs and seven home runs, all of which lead the team. In Big Ten play, Flores is 18 for 51 with 18 RBIs and four homers.
Illini to watch
Illinois will have to be stout — at the plate and on the mound — to keep up with Purdue. On offense, two outfielders, senior Nick Groves and junior Collin Jennings, are set to lead the Illini.
In his last eight games, Groves is 11 for 25 (.440) with four RBIs, one home run and six walks. He was a big part of the series wins against Rutgers and Penn State. Groves gets on base more than anyone on the team. In fact, he’s reached base in 39 consecutive games.
Where Groves is an on-base machine, Jennings’ speciality is driving in runs. In his last eight games, Jennings is 10 for 33 (.303) with 11 RBIs and two home runs. He plated eight runs in the series against the Nittany Lions.
Both players have been hot as of late and could be a big factor in the series against Purdue.
The pitching staff has also had some risers in recent weeks. Senior southpaw Reed Gannon and sophomore righty Sam Mommer have been lights out in their recent appearances.
Gannon took the mound in relief against Penn State and pitched five strong innings. Across his last three appearances, he’s pitched 7.2 innings and allowed just five hits and two earned runs. Both runs and three of the hits came in an outing against Rutgers, where he lasted just 0.2 innings.
Mommer is in a similar boat. His last three appearances have been great, throwing seven innings, allowing just three hits and no runs while striking out seven batters.
The Illini will need both pitchers, as well as the rest of the group, to be on their A-game. Purdue’s offense is nothing to laugh at, and with Illinois’ up-and-down offensive outings, the pitching might need to take the lead in this series.
Game day update
The first game of the series was originally scheduled for 5 p.m. Friday, but due to potential weather, it was moved up to 1 p.m. CDT. The games on Saturday and Sunday are scheduled for 1 p.m. and noon CDT, respectively.
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