Just two weeks ago, the sky was falling for Illinois (19-11, 11-8). Head coach Brad Underwood’s squad returned home following three consecutive double-digit defeats, including the biggest loss in program history to No. 2 Duke (27-3, 18-1). The Illini need to get back on track quickly before the postseason.
A get-right affair with Iowa (15-14, 6-12) and a much-needed Quad 1 road victory over No. 17 Michigan (22-8, 14-5) re-instilled faith for the fanbase. With just one game remaining, Illinois slots in as the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten tournament and the No. 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. Both standings are at risk on Friday against No. 18 Purdue (21-9, 13-6).
Seeding fluctuations
If Illinois loses on Friday to Purdue, its seeding will obviously be affected. A loss, followed by an Oregon (22-8, 11-8) win, would drop Illinois to the No. 8 seed in the Big Ten tournament. Illinois would then face No. 8 Michigan State (24-5, 15-3), a team it’s 0-2 against, rather than a rematch with Michigan, which it dominated.
However, with a win, the Illini could move up. It’s statistically unlikely they could move up further than the No. 6 seed, which would occur with a win over the Boilermakers and a loss against the UCLA Bruins (21-9, 12-7). Even if the Illini are victorious on Friday night, a Bruin win would keep them in the No. 7 slot.
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NCAA tournament seeding lines are also in play right now. Illinois climbed to one of the top seed lines in early January but took a steep dive with losses in late January and February. It rose once again following a two-win week. Analysts have shown a willingness to continue favoring the Illini’s rise through the seed rankings if they continue to play well.
When on their game, the Illini are an attractive team for an NCAA tournament format. They won by the largest margin over a top-10 road opponent in NCAA history earlier this season. Additionally, Illinois recently became the fourth team in history with multiple road wins by 20 or more points.
The NCAA committee likes teams with high ceilings, and Illinois fits the bill. Underwood’s group is 16-2 this season when shooting over 27% from long range, a pretty low bar to hit. If the next two weeks go smoothly, the committee will likely move Illinois up further.
Impact matchup to watch
The deciding matchup against Purdue could very likely be junior guard Kylan Boswell versus junior guard Braden Smith. Purdue has just three players averaging over 6.3 points per game, and its limited offensive capabilities depend on Smith.
Purdue’s backcourt was attacked all offseason and at the beginning of the 2024-25 season for its performances without former star center Zach Edey. Standing at just six feet tall, there was plenty of doubt surrounding how the former Honorable Mention All-American would perform.
However, in the second half of the season, Smith has been tremendous. He averages 16.3 points on 40.6% from deep, 4.5 rebounds, 8.7 assists and 2.4 steals per game. The Boilermaker had the best month of his career in January, putting up numbers unheard of in this century. He hasn’t exactly blown the Illini away in past meetings, but he also has never been this good.
Illinois will counter with Boswell. The Champaign native has two inches and 35 pounds on the Purdue star, and guarding the opposing team’s best player is routine for him. “Been there, done that,” is a solid way to describe Boswell’s season thus far. He has immense experience guarding players including graduate student guard Mark Sears, graduate student guard John Tonje and freshman forward Cooper Flagg.
Boswell has stepped up since Underwood requested more leadership after the Duke loss, and the team has followed his lead. If Illinois’ transfer veteran is able to slow down Smith, it’s hard to see where Purdue will turn.
Looking at the numbers
Home court has Illinois favored in this one, even as freshman forward Morez Johnson Jr. remains out. Both offenses are capable of putting up over 78 points per game.
They score in different ways, however. The Boilermakers enter Friday as the No. 8 three-point shooting team in the nation. They shoot 38.95% on 21.6 attempts, whereas the Illini only make a 30.8% clip on 30.3 attempts. The disparity is stark, with only two real threats for the visitors — Smith and junior guard Fletcher Loyer. The Illini may force other players to take shots.
What the Illini lack in three-point percentage, they make up for in the rebound column. Illinois is No. 8 in NCAA rebound margin, while Purdue falls to No. 155, an uncharacteristic ranking following three years with Edey. Purdue’s main lineup in its last two games doesn’t have crazy size, and Illinois has the edge with its rebounds.
Head coach Matt Painter has emerged as one of the best coaches in the country over the last couple of seasons and has had Illinois’ number. Purdue is 9-3 in the last 12 matchups, including a current five-game win streak. Illinois has experienced the other side of these winning streaks spanning multiple years. It extended its own win streak to nine over Michigan on Sunday. Ending this string of losses against Purdue in the finale at home would set Illinois up nicely heading into the postseason.
@benfader7
