In what is the most anticipated Sweet 16 matchup of this year’s NCAA tournament, No. 3 Illinois will face off against No. 2 Houston at the Toyota Center in Houston Thursday night. Both programs are powerhouses, but Houston has the edge in terms of recent postseason success – this is its seventh straight Sweet 16 under head coach Kelvin Sampson. On the other hand, Illinois is only in the second weekend for the second time during head coach Brad Underwood’s tenure.
It will be a home crowd for the Cougars, as they take the floor mere miles from their campus. Although the crowd will be dressed in mostly red, Underwood is solely focused on preparing for who’s on the floor, not in the stands.
“If we want to beat them, no matter where we play them, we would have to play great,” Underwood said. “Guess what? We’re going to have to do that (Thursday). And I think they’re going to have to play well if they want a chance to beat us.”
Kingston vs Keaton
On an individual level, the headlining matchup in Thursday night’s game will be between two star freshman guards: Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler. Both are projected top-10 picks in the NBA Draft this June.
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“They’re both, I would say, mature beyond their years in terms of poise and, obviously, the successes both those young men have had this season are pretty paralleled in terms of their growth and what their impact’s been on their team,” Underwood said.
Wagler burst onto the scene at the beginning of the season and hasn’t looked back. He’s put up 17.6 points on 45% overall shooting and a blistering 40.8 from deep, while also pitching in 4.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists. Wagler has established himself as a very poised ball handler that does not turn the ball over or get rattled much. He will be challenged by an elite Houston defense that is sure to send its best to stop him.
“He plays at his own pace, it’s hard to speed him up,” Flemings said about Wagler. “He’s the engine to their offense. It looks like he’s going super slow, but he’s actually quick … He just gets to wherever he wants to get to.”
Like Wagler, Flemings is a strong shooter that impacts the game in areas beyond just scoring. He’s averaged 16.2 points per game on 47.8% shooting, including a very strong 38.8% from three. Flemings also chips in 5.2 assists and 4.0 rebounds to make himself a threat in multiple areas. Illinois likes to force midrange jumpers, but Flemings loves that shot when forced to rise up inside the 3-point line.
“He makes the right decision,” Wagler said about Flemings. “He’s also super quick. He gets downhill. He gets to his pull-up, which he like never misses. … They’ll give him the ball in late-game scenarios and he’ll shoot it with confidence every time.”
Cougar defense will pressure Wagler
Illinois’ offense is high octane. It’s been the best in the country for most of the season because of its variety of offensive weapons and ability to have any player score from anywhere on the floor. Every player has had standout games this season and led the team in scoring on a given night, but Wagler has been consistent across the entire 34 game schedule they’ve played thus far. He hasn’t scored in single digits since November and will always find a way to make an impact across the stat sheet.
“Yeah, they’re a consensus top-two offense this year, and they play super hard,” Flemings said. “They hunt matchups a lot. Keaton Wagler, one of the best freshmen out, so he’s the engine to their team, but they also have (freshman forward David) Mirković, who is great post, great passer.”
Illinois may have the No. 2 offense in the nation, but Houston’s defense is ranked No. 4 per KenPom, which should make Thursday night extremely interesting. Will one of the best offenses in college basketball be able to break through one of the top defensive squads this year?
Houston’s defense will put pressure on Wagler from the jump to take him out of rhythm. Sending two defenders at him to trap the freshman is a likely scenario, and because of that, someone will be open. Passing out of traps, whether it’s Wagler, senior guard Kylan Boswell or someone else handling the ball at a given moment, will be key for the Illini if they wish to keep up the level of offensive production they displayed in their first two games of the tournament.
Having bigs that can facilitate, as well as graduate student forward Ben Humrichous and junior wing Jake Davis ready to catch and shoot, should make it tough for Houston to keep trapping Wagler if he’s able to make the right initial decisions and get the offense flowing through his teammates. He knows that it will be tough for him to be the primary scorer with so much attention being paid to him, so finding other ways to make an impact, which he has done all year, is something he’s ready to do.
“I just got to be able to go in there and trust my teammates,” Wagler said. “They’re going to try to put two on me out of ball screens, so just get it to the big. Allow them to make reads while they’re playing in rotation. And then, easy way for me to get points, like I said earlier, is just get on the offensive glass. Don’t worry about not getting as many shots up, but just going and doing the little things.”
Battle on the boards
Houston is physical, and they will put it all on the line to win a game. The same cannot be said for Illinois, at least until it looked to have rediscovered some “nastiness” in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. Thursday will be a tough test for the Illini to see if they can sustain that level of grit and energy for what is the most consequential 40 minutes of their season thus far.
“I think you have to have a mental focus to block guys out,” Underwood said. “I think their bigs are all elite at wedging and doing those things. I think there’s a physicality that they bring. We like to think we bring that same thing. But I think it’s the consistency of being able to match that for 40 minutes. We like to take pride in that, I know Kelvin takes pride in that with his guys, we’ll see who does it better.”
Offensive rebounding will be a major key for Illinois if it hopes to pull off the upset and make its second trip to the Elite Eight in three years. The Illini have thrived off teams allowing them to capitalize off missed shots and score on the second, third or even fourth attempt on a possession. The size of twin junior centers Tomislav Ivišić and Zvonimir Ivišić, Mirković’s tenacity on the boards and effort plays from others, such as Humrichous, have allowed the Illini to thrive in this area and average 13.4 offensive rebounds per game.
However, Houston is right up there with Illinois, averaging 12.8 offensive boards per game, led by freshman forward Chris Cenac Jr. (2.2 per game) and junior forward Joseph Tugler (3.0 per game) in that department. The Cougars know that both continuing its prolific numbers on that end, as well as grabbing defensive rebounds to prevent Illinois from doing the same, will have a big impact on the outcome of the game.
“I think the best thing they do is offensive rebounding,” Flemings said. “When the ball goes up, that’s when the game really starts. They go and they crash the rebounding, they are No. 3 in the country. So when you rebound that much, you’re getting rebounds off your misses, you have more chances to score. … It’s going to be a tall task for us, for sure.”
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