The waiting game is coming to an end for No. 3 Illinois as it prepares for its first Final Four appearance in 21 years on Saturday in a revenge game against No. 2 UConn. After two physical, hard-fought wins last week over the No. 2 Houston Cougars and the No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes, the expectations are high for the Illini in Indianapolis, and it’s time to see if they can rise to the occasion for two more games. 

This week, the DI sports staff sent in their predictions for how Saturday’s matchup between Illinois and UConn will play out. The decisions were based on overall tournament trends as well as how both teams have evolved since their previous meeting in November. 

Most likely to win: 

Illinois (14): 87.5%

UConn (2): 12.5%

There weren’t too many Illini doubters on the sports staff this week, with an overwhelming majority of reporters voting in favor of the Illini coming out on top against the Huskies . Although there weren’t too many positives that resulted from Illinois’ first face off with UConn, it is far from the same team now as the one that took the court at Madison Square Garden in late November. A few reporters on the sports staff recognized this when making their pick in Illinois’ favor. 

“Illinois wasn’t the same team it was when it lost to UConn in November,” one reporter said. “Keaton Wagler did not have the ball in his hands, and the rotation was completely different. With how Illinois has been playing lately during this tournament run, they have the tools and momentum to pull out a win.”

Not only did freshman guard Keaton Wagler not have the ball in his hands constantly like he does now, but that was also his last single-figure scoring game this season. In just 14 minutes, Wagler scored 3 points on only three field-goal attempts. Since putting the ball in Wagler’s hands more, Illinois has built its offense into one of the most efficient ones in the country, and some of the sports staff believe that will set Illinois apart from UConn come Saturday. 

“UConn has been proven to be a beatable team,” a reporter said. “They have been exposed defensively and offensively. Illinois has an opportunity to expose those areas. Some may say the minutes distribution is different from November, but mainly, it’s the play style of the offense that has changed. This has brought Illinois to the next level.”

For the two lone reporters who went with the foe, they cited the ways the Huskies have developed in their own right since the November meeting, especially in their front court, as reasoning for why they will head to the National Championship game. Similar to Wagler, senior center Tarris Reed Jr. didn’t have his best outing against Illinois earlier this season, only playing 15 minutes and scoring 2 points. However, Reed has been on a tear during the NCAA tournament, averaging 21.8 points and 13.5 rebounds per game. 

One reporter noted that while Illinois’ defense has improved in its physicality and toughness over the last four games, it still isn’t enough to match UConn on either the perimeter or at the rim. The Huskies’ perimeter players, junior guards Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. and freshman guard Braylon Mullins, along with their high-scoring veteran forward, redshirt senior Alex Karaban, may be too much for the Illini defense to handle once again. 

“To me, they have the tougher and more physical big with Tarris Reed Jr.,” a reporter said. “In addition, the Huskies’ three guards outmatch the Illini’s guards, especially when you factor in how Braylon Mullins has come into form in the back half of the season. … Illinois’ defense is the weakest of the Final Four teams, ranking 20th in adjusted efficiency, while UConn ranks 9th. Defense wins championships.” 

Illinois’ MVP of the game: 

David Mirković (6): 37.5%

Andrej Stojaković (3): 18.8%

Kylan Boswell (2): 12.5%

Tomislav Ivišić (2): 12.5%

Keaton Wagler (1): 6.3%

Zvonimir Ivišić (1): 6.3%

The fans (1): 6.3%

With Illinois’ deep roster with a plethora of offensive threats and defensive talent across the board, it can really be anyone’s turn to step up to the plate and lead the charge. However, the DI sports staff had the most faith in freshman forward David Mirković as the one who would be the Illini’s difference maker on Saturday. 

Through the first four games of The Big Dance, Mirković is averaging 14.8 points and 11 rebounds per game, including a 29-point, 17-rebound performance in his debut against No. 14 Penn. One reporter cited Mirković’s rebounding ability against Reed and other members of UConn’s front court as the most important factor for Illinois ahead of the rematch.

“If Illinois does win, Mirk will have to be a big part of it, and that’s no secret,” the reporter said. “Illinois, obviously, has to keep up its strong defensive play, and Mirk’s rebounding ability to this point has been a big part of that. … As long as he keeps getting boards (on both ends), that will be valuable enough.”

After Mirković, junior wing Andrej Stojaković was the second most popular choice for Illinois’ MVP of the game. On both ends of the floor, Stojaković has been the Illini’s X-factor in this tournament while coming off the bench as not only a go-to scorer, but a defensive rebounder and on-ball defender. With a lineup full of 3-point shooters, Stojaković’s ability to drive and draw contact is an asset, and a few members of the DI sports staff recognize this. 

“I think he has thrived ever since embracing the sixth man role,” a reporter said. “He has been one of our most consistent drivers, so he will be a go-to option if threes aren’t falling.”

The Illini veteran returners, senior guard Kylan Boswell and junior center Tomislav Ivišić, also got two votes each from the sports staff. Boswell and Ivišić were Illinois’ leading scorers in November’s game against UConn, scoring 25 and 11 points, respectively. One reporter noted that in Boswell’s final weekend of college basketball, he’s going to try and “go out with a bang,” and another added that Ivišić’s interior presence on both ends of the floor should set the tone from the jump on Saturday. 

Lastly, one reporter picked another MVP that won’t be playing on the court come Saturday: the Illini fans. In comparison to Illinois’ first two NCAA sites, this one is less than two hours away from Champaign-Urbana. Even at the Illini’s open practice on Friday, thousands of fans in orange and blue filled multiple sections of Lucas Oil Stadium, and more will be on the way for Saturday’s game. 

“Illini fans have to show up, and their impact is what will carry the team’s morale and also completely be the game changer for Illinois,” one reporter said. “If the fans don’t show up, Illinois will lose. Time to make Indianapolis Illini territory.”

If Illinois wins on Saturday, how confident are you that they will win the national championship?:

Not confident (1): 6.3% 

Slightly confident (6): 37.5% 

Moderately confident (6): 37.5%

Confident (2): 12.5%

Very confident (1): 6.3%

Even if Illinois gets revenge with a win against UConn on Saturday, it won’t be an easy road to the program’s first national championship, and the DI sports staff recognizes that. With 75% of the staff choosing slightly confident or moderately confident, it reflects the dangerous No. 1 seeds on the opposite side of the bracket from the Illini. 

Following Illinois vs. UConn, No. 1 Michigan and No. 1 Arizona will square off in a highly anticipated game between two of college basketball’s consistent top teams this year. Both teams present a physical front line that doesn’t lack scoring in the paint or an aggressive mindset on the glass. Whether the Illini would match up with the Wolverines for a second time or the Wildcats in the National Championship game, the sports staff realizes it’s not going to be a cakewalk. 

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