After a loss to No. 4 Ohio State (9-0, 1-0) on Friday that put an end to its unbeaten start, No. 10 Illinois (6-1, 1-1) will host Northwestern (2-2, 0-1) on Sunday to complete its homestand. Sunday’s dual allows the Illini to bounce back and compete for an important Big Ten win.
After a blowout loss to the Buckeyes, the Illini will want to smoothen out a few edges and get back in the win column before a series of ranked duals that complete their season.
Illinois so far
Similar to the 2015-16 season, Ohio State put an end to Illinois’ unbeaten start. The previous loss also broke its streak of scoring 20+ points in every dual. Importantly, Illinois’ “big three’s” unbeaten streak has ended. 133-pound redshirt senior Lucas Byrd is the only unbeaten wrestler for Illinois now.
Illinois remains a solid team and was outmatched against a top-five-ranked team. Its middleweight (149-184 pounds) wrestlers have only lost nine out of 35 matches.
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Illinois’ most significant weakness is its 125-pound weight category competitiveness. An unranked dual could be just the right contest for junior Caelan Riley, who must add strength to Illinois’ lineup.
Tracking the Wildcats
Northwestern’s first loss came to No. 20 Little Rock (10-2). This will be its second ranked dual of the season. Its second loss came to Purdue (8-1, 1-0) in its only Big Ten matchup so far.
Both its losses this season have had a margin of 18 or more points. In both their wins, the Wildcats scored 29 points. Contrastingly, they have failed to go above 13 points in either of their losses.
In their matchups since 2000, Illinois boasts a record of 18-4 against Northwestern. Illinois’ home record has been an impeccable 9-1 in this time frame. Its largest margin of victory was a destructive 40-3 in 2001. It has averaged 25.18 points per dual. The statistics overwhelmingly favor Illinois, and so do the weight-class matchups.
Head-to-head
If there is a team that Riley will hope to find his feet against, it’s Northwestern. Northwestern’s 125-pound redshirt freshman Dedrick Navarro is 1-3 in duals this season. His only win came against Northern Illinois (2-1, 2-0).
It is expected to be a cakewalk for Byrd in the 133-pound weight category as Northwestern sophomore Massey Odiotti is 1-3 in duals this season. The Illini could amass major points from that round if things go their way.
Northwestern 165-pound redshirt senior Maxx Mayfield is one of its most formidable wrestlers and is unbeaten in duals so far. Illinois’ 165-pound redshirt freshman Braeden Scoles is coming off his first loss this season and will look to bounce back in what should be a competitive match.
Northwestern has lost 20 out of 40 matches in its four duals across weight categories. On the other hand, Illinois has only lost 22 out of its 70 matches in seven duals across weight categories. This is a significant disparity, and Illinois will have the upper hand heading into Sunday’s fixture.
Upcoming battles
After the Northwestern dual, Illinois heads out on a difficult road trip. It faces No. 2 Iowa (7-0, 1-0), No. 27 Maryland (7-5, 2-0) and No. 18 Rutgers (9-2, 1-0). This makes a win against Northwestern important for Illinois’ confidence before heading out to Iowa City to face a top-two team.
History and statistics suggest Illinois has the upper hand, but Northwestern will want to make a game out of this to announce themselves in the Big Ten.
