The closure of NCAA conference tournaments only brings more uncertainty to this upcoming Selection Sunday. A huge shock to the Big Ten came when UCLA (30-2) finally got a win over USC (28-3) to claim the conference tournament championship.
Despite Illinois’ (21-9) early elimination in the Big Ten tournament, its regular season performance still has the team safe in the NCAA tournament. The uncertainty now lies in what seed the Illini will place into.
This year, up to 13 of the 18 Big Ten teams are projected to head to the national tournament. Illinois is undoubtedly one of those benefiting from the conference’s strength. Illinois finished No. 6 in the conference and is No. 32 in the country, according to the NCAA.
Twice this season, the Illini earned a place in the AP Top 25 poll. But with strong competition from inside and outside the conference, Illinois’ final seeding for March Madness remains in the air.
Ben’s prediction
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Despite a weak end to its season, Illinois will be ranked as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Illini’s strong record in a very talented conference will keep them from sliding past that mark.
That placement would put the Illini in a bracket against a No. 9 seed. If they win that game, they will face either a No. 1 seed or a No. 16 seed, but it will probably be the former.
Among the probable top seeds, Texas (31-3) is likely the region leader that Illinois will be grouped with. That would put the Illini in Austin, Texas, for their first matchup. A No. 9 seed that could make sense for that particular bracket is South Dakota State (29-3).
That leaves the No. 16 seed open, which would likely be a non-Power 4 conference winner. One possible team named in ESPN’s bracketology is UNC Greensboro (25-6). With the bracket rounded out, here’s a prediction for how the first weekend might go.
First-weekend prediction
Illinois falls to South Dakota State in the first round. Illinois is on a four-game skid, mostly due to its lack of depth. It has looked tired and out of sorts in the fourth quarter in all of its losses during that stretch.
South Dakota State isn’t a team that has thrived on weak opponents, but it has two ranked wins against Power 4 teams. The Jackrabbits are on a 19-game win streak and haven’t lost in their conference.
South Dakota State is a good team with a solid roster. While Illinois has an arguably better roster, its lack of depth proves to be its downfall in this scenario.
In the second round, Texas beats South Dakota State easily. Texas is a top team for a reason, and it’s shown that all season. It also beat South Dakota State early in the season without difficulty, winning by 46 points.
Brie’s prediction
Multiple bracketologies place Illinois on the No. 8 seed line, but I want to explore the possibility of a drop to No. 9. One main argument is that the Illini finished the regular season on a three-game skid. They were knocked out in their first Big Ten tournament game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers (21-11). Nebraska lost to Illinois earlier in February and was seeded lower in the conference, so a loss here was unexpected for the Illini.
The NCAA will consider the Illini’s injury issues, but other teams performed equally well and had better postseason runs. For example, Michigan (22-10) and Iowa (22-10) found themselves in the quarterfinals. The Hawkeyes had an inconsistent season but pulled it together in elimination play and did it without a bye. Both performances can and should push them ahead of the Illini.
Despite these factors, Illinois is unlikely to seed lower than ninth, if it even falls that low. A best-case scenario would be jumping into the No. 7 seed in place of Iowa, although that is unlikely given the latter’s better tournament play.
Illinois also shares similar overall records with other projected No. 9 seeds: Georgia Tech (22-10), Mississippi State (21-11), Richmond (27-6) and Cal (25-8), making the No. 9 placement fitting based on record alone.
First-weekend prediction
Falling to the No. 9 seed won’t change much for the Illini’s first two weekends. They would still be placed in the Longhorns’ region, except Creighton (26-6) would likely jump to the open No. 8 slot.
Creighton is one of only two teams from the Big East making it into the NCAA tournament. In the Big East tournament, the Bluejays flew through to the title game, but in the end, the five-time consecutive champions UConn (31-3) clipped Creighton’s wings.
The Big Ten prepared the Illini well for what promises to be a tough challenge. A silver lining is that the early exit from the conference tournament gives the short-benched Illini extra rest and practice time. March Madness also gives more time between games, which will be crucial in preserving the Illinois players’ stamina.
Beating Creighton means Illinois likely faces its region’s No. 1 seed, Texas. Only one No. 16 team in the history of women’s March Madness, Harvard in 1998, has ever seen the second round. In this case, the Illini will likely fall to the Longhorns, seeing as they struggled against their conference’s No. 1 seed, UCLA.
The Longhorns had the SEC’s strongest defense but had glaring offensive struggles, particularly beyond the arc. While the Illini will give them a run on the perimeter, if they can’t get their shots to fall, it won’t matter.
If this upset happens, Illinois is in a prime position to go on a Sweet Sixteen run. The 1998 Harvard squad only made it to its second game before being eliminated. Between the unlikely potential No. 16 options, Arkansas State (21-10) would be the tougher competitor.
The team beat the conference’s only undefeated team remaining, James Madison (28-5), which is projected to grab a No. 11 seed, in the championship of the Sun Belt tournament. Arkansas State has decent shooters and incredible defenders. Similar to the Texas outcome, Illinois’ better offense is meaningless if it can’t break through defensive pressure.
