Illinois (19-9, 9-8) saw its dominant three-game win streak end in Iowa City on Thursday. The 82-78 win for No. 9 Iowa (23-5, 14-3) positions it well to win out its regular season and earn a coveted double-bye in the upcoming Big Ten tournament as the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Illinois now needs a win in its senior day matchup against No. 22 Minnesota (21-7, 12-5) to stay above .500 in conference play.
Illinois is caught in a three-way tie between USC (17-11, 9-8) and Washington (19-9, 9-8). A win would buy Illinois a single bye and allow the team some much needed rest after two tough games to close the season.
The Illini are confident that, despite not being able to close the game after overcoming a 10-0 deficit to start, the experience gained from the tight game will only push them farther forward.
“We can play with anyone in the country,” said head coach Shauna Green. “If you can come and almost get a win at Carver, then we sure as hell better be ready to fight against Minnesota at home.”
While Illinois showed grit, it made too many fundamental errors. The Illini committed five turnovers in the fourth quarter alone, including on back-to-back possessions. Unnecessary fouling also limited key players’ minutes. With only one game left before the postseason, the Illini need to commit to always playing the full 40 minutes.
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“There’s no excuses, we gotta be sharper,” Green said. “We made too many mistakes. Critical mistakes in critical times. We had this game, and I feel like we should have won this game.”
Balance offensive production
Four Illini finished in double figures, which allowed Illinois to keep the game close. Freshman forward Cearah Parchment had her 12th double-double of the season, ending the night with 20 points and 12 rebounds. Sophomore forward Berry Wallace led her team with 21 points, hitting three threes and going a perfect 4 for 4 from the free-throw line.
Junior guard Jasmine Brown-Hagger continued her late-season jump. Since moving into a starting role, Brown-Hagger took time to adjust. Through the first 24 games of the season, she had only two 10-point outings. But in the most recent four-game stretch, she has scored 15-plus points in three contests. Green credits her confidence and finding her rhythm again.
“She’s doing a great job of rhythm threes, open threes and then getting to the rim,” Green said. “I continually just try to tell her, you can score, we need you to score.”
Finally, sophomore guard Aaliyah Guyton added 11 points in her return to Iowa City. Guyton has particularly grown as a 3-point shooter as of late. Before February, Guyton had only hit nine total threes. This month, she already has 13 makes.
“I know I’ve been a little hotter,” Guyton said. “So just using that as motivation and staying aggressive, staying in attack mode, and just staying confident and believing in myself.”
But this loss to Iowa shows that when only four players carry the load, it isn’t enough to win close games or beat tough teams. Illinois had only two other scorers who combined for merely 11 points. Redshirt sophomore center Lety Vasconcelos attempted no field goals in her 14 minutes of play.
Meanwhile, eight Hawkeyes scored, but only three had over 10 points. When teams have more balanced production, it forces defenses to cover everyone and spreads defenders thin. Against elite teams, top-heavy scoring isn’t always enough. More efficient contributions are needed from all players, starting or not.
Stop relying on comebacks
Too many times, slow starts have forced Illinois to rely on second-half pushes. While it has worked out before, it is not a guarantee.
The Hawkeyes opened the game with a four-minute 10-0 push. Two of the players who led this ended as Iowa’s top scorers: sophomore center Ava Heiden, who finished with 28 points, and senior forward Hannah Stuelke, who had 18. Green chose to let her players work through the slump instead of disrupting momentum.
“I knew that they kind of had to get settled into this environment, and they did,” Green said about not using a timeout. “I didn’t want to have to burn a timeout … they need to be able to get out of this.”
The Illini responded with a 9-0 run of their own to get the score within one. It all started with fast breaks and transition points from Parchment, Guyton and freshman guard Destiny Jackson. To cap their run, Guyton hit a three-pointer in front of her former home crowd. The first quarter ended with the Illini down by three. This ebb and flow continued for much of the night, and the teams were deadlocked at the end of the second and third quarters.
Illinois cannot hope to beat Minnesota if it falls behind, though.
“They have everything you need to be a top team in this league, which they are,” Green said. “They’ve got five people in double figures; they have literally every piece.”
Minnesota has had a lot of quality wins against top talent, yet dropped its most recent game to Michigan State (22-6, 11-6). The Golden Gophers were ahead early, but defensive lapses and no rebounding let a feisty Spartan squad pull ahead for good. Despite the loss, the Golden Gophers remain a dangerous team on both ends of the floor.
“We got to worry about the inside game with a true five,” Green said. “They have an elite shooter shooting almost 50% from three at their four spot. They can spread you a little bit different than Iowa. So this will be a little bit different, you know, issues of guarding the perimeter, and then they’re one of the top defensive teams in the country, so they really try to limit you.”
Protect the ball, capitalize on 50/50 balls
The last, and potentially most important takeaway from Thursday’s game, is that Illinois needs to reduce team turnovers but take advantage of the other team’s mistakes.
Typically, the Illini as a whole are extremely protective of the ball. They’re No. 5 in the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.33. Jackson, their point guard, prides protecting the ball as an integral part of her game.
“It’s ingrained in me,” Jackson said. “I really don’t want to turn the ball over. The high turnover games I did have, I did not feel good about that at all. Me turning the ball over as a point guard, I just feel like that’s one of the most detrimental things, just because of how much I do have the ball in my hands.”
Jackson averages 5.29 assists per game and has achieved that while having five zero-turnover outings. She’s had only five games with 5-plus turnovers, and her personal assist-to-turnover ratio before the Iowa game was 5.71.
The other starting freshman on the team, Parchment, similarly made some costly mistakes in the last stretch of the game, which sealed the loss for Illinois. Late-game turnovers and no presence from Parchment or Vasconcelos on the offensive glass shifted the momentum away from Illinois. Parchment collected only one offensive rebound on Thursday, and Illinois only had five second-chance points.
Minnesota is a team that will capitalize on those loose balls. Against Michigan State, Minnesota had 14 points off turnovers and 13 second-chance points. Three Golden Gophers had 7-plus boards against the Spartans. Graduate student center Sophie Hart collected nine offensive rebounds last Sunday and 96 across the season. Parchment, who stands two inches shorter than Hart, will have her work cut out for her. She’ll need to bring energy and have strong box outs.
“Continue to play hard,” Wallace said about Parchment’s energy. “She was on the floor diving after all the 50/50 balls. It helps bring us energy, and it helps bring me energy personally, too.”
Against Minnesota, Illinois will need to bring the aggression if it wants to close its season out right. It will be a tough road to a 20-win season, but a victory would do wonders for their postseason aspirations.
Tip-off is 1 p.m. on Sunday, with the Big Ten Network televising it as its wild-card game. Senior day will honor newcomer graduate student forward Gisela Segura.
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