No. 7 Illinois has already had a very successful postseason. For the first time in 15 years, Illinois won back-to-back Big Ten tournament games. Also, for the first time in back-to-back seasons since 1999-2000, the Illini advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. They are now hunting for their first trip to the Sweet 16 this century. Standing in their way are the No. 2 Vanderbilt Commodores, who have had a standout season.
Vanderbilt head coach Shea Ralph has carried the Commodores to one of their best seasons in program history. Their 13 conference wins are an all-time best, and it is Ralph’s first time advancing to the NCAA tournament round of 32 as Vanderbilt’s coach. It has been 13 years since Vanderbilt advanced to the Sweet 16, so despite being a high seed, the Commodores still have a lot to prove.
It will be difficult for Illinois to defeat Vanderbilt at home. The Commodores are 17-0 in Memorial Gymnasium, and three of their four losses were to AP Top 25-ranked opponents. They started the season 21-0 before dropping back-to-back games in late January. Vanderbilt’s last regular-season loss was to No. 7 Georgia, which was unranked at the time.
Vanderbilt was outrebounded and had its second-least efficient night from the floor in that loss, which led to its defeat.
High-effort rebounding
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Illinois’ win over No. 10 Colorado on Saturday was marked by its high effort from start to finish. The Illini were constantly on the floor fighting for the ball, which helped them carry momentum to swing the game in their favor.
“That’s what you got to do if you want to win in March, right?” said head coach Shauna Green about the team’s fight. “I say that all the time. How tough are you going to be? How bad do you want it? Every 50/50 has to be yours if you’re going to continue to move on. … That’s what I want this program to be about. … I told them that in pregame, that ball is on the floor, we better see five white jerseys diving.”
This fight will be important again against Vanderbilt, which averages 13.1 turnovers per game. Illinois, on the other hand, ranks in the top 20 for fewest turnovers, averaging only 12.3. While the Illini are typically extremely protective of the ball, on Saturday, freshman guard Destiny Jackson had four turnovers, which is unusual for her. The Commodores average 20.28 opponent turnovers, so another high turnover night from the point guards may spell the end of Illinois’ season.
In addition to the high number of turnovers, Illinois also had nine steals. Illinois has multiple players who excel at tracking the ball and poking it away. Among those are Jackson and junior guards Maddie Webber and Jasmine Brown-Hagger. On Saturday, Brown-Hagger matched her career high with four steals, and Webber contributed two of her own. The pair will need to repeat or exceed that performance on Monday to win.
Force tough shots from Vanderbilt
In Vanderbilt’s 76-74 loss to Georgia, star sophomore guard Mikayla Blakes still had a dominant night. She scored 27 points, but 19 of those points came from the free-throw line. Blakes shoots 86.1% from the stripe, sending her to the line that often helped keep Vanderbilt in the game. She finished 3 for 8 from the floor and 2 for 5 from the 3-point line.
The Commodores had another player step up that game and try to carry the team to a win alongside Blakes. Senior guard and forward Justine Pissott scored five threes and is the team’s leading 3-point shooter with 91 makes. If Pissott is shooting poorly from the 3-point line, then the scoring burden falls even more on Blakes.
Illinois’ 3-point defense has been steady all season, and the Illini have held their opponents to 29.1% efficiency and 4.1 makes. For Vanderbilt, which averages 36.3% with 9.6 makes on the season, this stifling defense may throw the Commodores off.
But the Commodores are an adaptable team with multiple scoring options. Blakes is the nation’s leading scorer, averaging 27.1 points per game. She is a talented three-level scorer, and Illinois will spend all of Sunday watching film to find ways to contain her.
“Obviously, Blakes is Blakes,” Green said. “She’s elite. We’re going to have our hands full. They can really score it. They’re a really good team.”
A win may be decided by Illinois’ ability to contain all players who aren’t Blakes. Her lowest scoring game is 14 points against No. 2 Michigan (27-6, 15-3) in January. She took only five free throws and made no 3-pointers. She has scored less than 20 points only five times this season.
In every loss for the Commodores, Blakes took fewer than 10 free throws. Playing clean defense against her is the only way to limit her, and the Illini have been doing better as a whole at limiting fouling.
Illinois tips off against Vanderbilt in Nashville, Tennessee, on Monday night at 6 p.m. CDT.
@briedirl
