Back-to-back losses dropped Illinois (12-4-1, 5-4-1) to No. 7 in the Big Ten with 16 points. Its final opponent of the season, Michigan (6-8-3, 3-4-3), remains just outside of postseason contention at No. 11 with 12 points.
A win Sunday would be monumental for both programs. Illinois would improve its seeding and earn a bye to the quarterfinals, while Michigan would snag a spot in the tournament.
While there is a lot riding on this game, the Illini plan on taking everything step by step.
“We want to sort through the emotions that come from wins and losses, manage how we felt and then move on from them,” said head coach Katie Hultin. “It’s hard to play (the next game) when you’re still riding on these emotions (from the last one).”
The Illini pride themselves on how well they play on the road. They boast a 7-3 away record, with two of those losses in their two most recent games. Despite those two dropped performances, Illinois’ only other losses occurred one month ago: a 3-0 loss to now-unranked Ohio State (8-2-6, 4-1-5), and a 2-1 defeat against current conference leaders, Washington (1-5, 8-0-2). The Illini have shown their resilience again and again this season and will need to bring it out one final time.
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Controlling first half could determine game
Michigan will be tough competition. The Wolverines hold an 18-10-1 record all-time against the Illini and are 12-4 against them when hosting. The Illini are on a two-game skid and have been struggling to settle into the first half of games.
Multiple times this season, other teams have forced the Illini to meet them in direct-style battles in their defensive third. This puts added pressure on redshirt junior goalkeeper Izzy Lee in addition to all the team’s defenders. It also pulls energy and attention from midfielders, who need to track deep into their own half to defend, then carry the ball up and playmake.
While Hultin has no shortage of high-stamina players who can make this hike up and down the field, the Wolverines boast a top-tier scoring duo in sophomore forward Elle Ervin and junior forward Gabrielle Prych. The pair has a combined 13 goals this season and 35 shots on goal. It will be a total team effort to shut them down.
Still, Illinois has more efficient shooters and a stronger goalkeeper. As long as the midfield controls the ball and the defense can hold off Ervin and Prych, the Illini may get to end their regular season on a high note.
Standings breakdown
Michigan needs a victory to slide past USC (7-6-2, 4-5-1), and Penn State (8-6-3, 4-4-2) if either team loses or ties. The Wolverines are only one point behind the No. 10 Trojans and two points behind the Nittany Lions. A draw or a loss keeps the Wolverines in their current No. 11 spot.
As it stands, Illinois is practically guaranteed to play in the Big Ten tournament. At worst, the Illini can clinch the last seed since the Trojans are the only team that can tie the Illini in a win of their own. Should this happen, Illinois would have to play the No. 7 seed in the opening round of the tournament.
Illinois has the potential to rise to the No. 4 spot with a win, but is guaranteed at least the No. 6 seed. If Illinois moves into the top six, it would bypass the opening round and start tournament play in the quarterfinals. This means one fewer game to the title and one extra day of postseason prep.
The last possible outcome Sunday is that the Illini and Wolverines draw. Both teams would be rewarded zero points, so Illinois would remain at the No. 7 seed. This outcome would also mean the Illini play in the tournament’s opening round.
Final kickoff
The high-stakes conclusion to the regular season kicks off at noon CDT Sunday in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The contest will be streamed on B1G+.
