Popular opinion over the past couple days is that the Illini could very well be 3-0 in conference play and 3-2 overall. That thought is due to a three-point loss to Maryland at home, followed by a four-point loss this past Saturday at Purdue. This opinion is more than fair, but I’m going to offer a new perspective.

Illinois should be 2-1 in conference play.

The 3-0 conference record is easily explainable, but it needs some context. Against Maryland, Illinois found itself leading 17-10 with just under five minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Illini had entered Terrapin territory and faced a fourth-and-1 on the 40. 

If Illinois had gone for it, it would have been in field goal range and had a very good chance to put the game away. Instead, Bielema elected to take a delay of game penalty and punt. In the head coach’s defense, Blake Hayes is, in my opinion, the best punter in the country, and the defense had been playing well for the first time in three weeks. 

But Maryland drove 86 yards for a touchdown to tie the game. Quarterback Brandon Peters and the Illini got the ball back with about two minutes left, but they couldn’t put anything together and punted with under a minute left. A poor punt gave the Terrapins good field position, and Maryland walked it off on a field goal.

I didn’t love the decision to punt, but it was justified. Bielema loves his punter and had a defense that was playing decently. Breakout freshman running back Josh McCray had left the game, so it was probably either a Peters sneak or a punt. Like I said, Bielema explained his decision on a tough call, and it can make sense. But it didn’t work.

Fast forward a week. The Illini were up 9-6 at Purdue with about nine minutes to go in the fourth quarter, facing a fourth-and-2 at the Boilermaker 34. Kicker James McCourt was three of four for the day from field goals, including one conversion and one miss from beyond 50 yards. The running game was the best part of the offense all game, led once again by McCray. The defense was also once again playing well, not allowing a point since Purdue’s second drive.

The situation was extremely similar to the week prior. All offensive metrics advised going for the first down, whether it be a run, pass or field-goal attempt. McCourt had made one on the previous drive and was successful from 51 yards out earlier in the game, which is how long the field goal would have been from.

Bielema elected to punt, again. 

And what do you know? Purdue scored a touchdown on the next drive, taking a 13-9 lead. Illinois was able to get inside the red zone on the next drive but ultimately were stopped on downs. The Boilermakers then ran out the clock, and the Illini lost, again.

So this is where my 2-1 conference record comes in. I don’t blame Bielema for his decision against Maryland, because it was his first time faced with that situation. But once is a fluke, and twice is a pattern.

He defended his decision against Purdue by saying he didn’t want to have to pass the ball on fourth-and-2. Peters wasn’t playing great (we’ll get to that later), but Bielema also said McCourt had just missed a field goal from that length. That’s not really true. He made one from that length for his first field goal of the game, missed one from 54 two attempts later and his most recent attempt was a make from 45.

In my eyes, Illinois goes for the field goal, McCourt makes it and the Illini go up 12-6. Purdue gets its touchdown, taking a 13-12 lead.

But the Illini found themselves inside the Boilermaker 20-yard line on their last drive, which McCourt is money from. He makes a field goal, and Illinois takes down Purdue on the road, 15-13. 

If Bret had decided to go for it on fourth down two weeks in a row, then yes, it’s very possible Illinois is 3-0 in the Big Ten. But it’s not fair to expect him to get it right the first time when he hadn’t been in that situation yet with the Illini. It’s the second time that really gets me, so that is where my 2-1 record really comes from. 

The real issue here is that Bielema didn’t learn from his mistake, and not only that, but he defended his decision after Purdue, saying he’d punt “100 times over.” Everyone has to learn to admit when they mess up, and Bielema did not do that. 

Bielema started as a head coach in 2006 at Wisconsin, so he doesn’t resemble the newer play styles or decision-making seen by some younger coaches in 2021. Same with his offensive coordinator, Tony Petersen. Bielema punting the first time around resembles how teams probably played when he started coaching, but you can’t live in the past. Especially in sports, where the game continues to change.

Speaking of his traditional coaching style, both Bielema and Petersen love the traditional quarterback, which Peters resembles. 6-foot-5, strong arm, pocket passer.

He also has the ability to use his feet effectively, but we saw much more of that under former offensive coordinator Rod Smith’s offense than Petersen’s. 

Peters, who is in his sixth year of college and third at Illinois, was injured in the first quarter of game one against Nebraska. Backup Art Sitkowski, who has sophomore eligibility, was put in the game and led Illinois to a win. He also was the starter the next two games: home against UTSA and at Virginia, both of which Illinois lost.

His stats, however, weren’t that bad. Against Nebraska, UTSA and Virginia, Sitkowski threw for 142 yards and two touchdowns, 266 yards and three touchdowns and 221 yards and one touchdown, respectively. His only interception came at Virginia, which really wasn’t his fault at all.

Sitkowski wasn’t great, but he held his own. It’s also very notable that as of now, he’s QB1 on the depth chart for next year.

As for Peters, in two games since returning from his injury, he threw for 185 yards and an interception against Maryland and 100 yards at Purdue. No touchdowns. 

I don’t blame Bielema and Petersen one bit for starting Peters against Purdue after his disappointing performance against Maryland. I would have done the same thing. But, as I said earlier, once is a fluke and twice is a pattern. 

Nothing is official, but it looks like Peters is gonna start again this coming week against Charlotte. 

Sitkowski isn’t even that much of a different quarterback than Peters. He’s also a 6-foot-5 pocket passer, and his feet aren’t as mobile as Peters’. I know Brandon has the experience with Illinois, but even that isn’t super impressive.

Peters has thrown for 200+ yards five times as an Illini, which Art did in both of his starts this season. Brandon also really struggled with consistency and completion percentage in his first two seasons at Illinois, which also was put on display in the two full games he played this season.

It’s time for another change. Sitkowski has better stats this year, is younger and has been more consistent. In fact, it’s arguable that if Art started the last two weeks, Illinois would be 3-0 in conference play, but I’m not going to say that that is a totally fair argument right now.

What I do care about is the future, and right now, that’s the issue at hand. Barring a miracle, Illinois isn’t getting even close to making a bowl game this year, so it’s time to start at least considering what can happen next year. Bielema and staff will probably hit the transfer portal for a quarterback this offseason, but Art also is a product of the transfer portal and is only a sophomore. 

It seems only right to play him, but all signs point to Peters starting again this coming week.

The ongoing theme here is that Bielema has been unwilling on two major occasions to make the adjustments he has needed to make to win. Being aggressive on fourth down can win you a game, which the Baltimore Ravens showed in between Illinois’ losses to Maryland and Purdue. And a quarterback is the most important position in sports and the captain of the offense. 

Being this conservative reflects Bielema’s past coaching situations, but Illinois isn’t Wisconsin, and 2021 isn’t 2006-12. It’s OK to admit when you’re wrong.

I’d like to add in right now that I have not in any way given up on Bielema despite the harsh criticism I’ve given in this column, because everything else has been pretty darn good.

In my opinion, other than Petersen, he has hired a great staff, led by his defensive coordinator hire, Ryan Walters. Walters is young, willing to make changes from play to play and has gotten the most so far out of a defense that, at the end of the day, just isn’t very talented. After poor defensive performances in games two and three, Walters and the defense came back and allowed 33 combined points in games four and five. 

Bielema also has been recruiting the heck out of the state of Illinois, which he promised to do and is a main reason athletic director Josh Whitman chose him as head coach. 

He’s kept Illinois competitive, and despite only having one win to show for it, four of five games this year have been close and exciting. He’s doing a good job.

My hope going forward is that Bielema will make better adjustments when needed and stop being so conservative about everything. Take risks, whether that be on a fourth down late in the game or starting a quarterback that is less experienced. 

I loved, and still do really like, Bret Bielema as the hire for Illinois and truly think he is moving this program in the right direction. None of his players right now are his own, which is why I won’t give up on him for at least his first four years. 

But to coach a winning team, adjustments are necessary. I just hope those necessary adjustments will start now.

@JPietsch14

[email protected]