Priest Holmes, we hardly knew ye. Fantasy enthusiasts hearken back to a simpler time, when drafting a Holmes or a Tomlinson meant getting a gold-backed guarantee of 320 carries and 1,600 yards.
The league’s offenses were structured as such, and frankly, it made drafting easier. Much to the chagrin of lazy owners, the league’s bigger, faster, and more injury prone athletes have forced the 320-carry back into extinction, leaving few survivors. Two-headed running attacks popularized by the Brandon Jacobs/Tiki Barber tandem in 2006 have taken their place and the trend has spread like wildfire.
The league-wide change has in turn vaulted previously less valuable positions into the highest of rounds. Receivers in particular have taken on a whole new level of value on a team and fantasy owners are taking notice. For the first time since the fantasy boom early last decade, as many as six wide receivers could go in the first round of some drafts. Here to navigate the new and uncharted fantasy landscape is Fantasy columnist Gordon Voit.
Sleepers
QBs:
Kevin Kolb, PHI
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Kolb broke onto the fantasy scene in weeks 2 and 3 last year when he exploded for 731 yards and 4 touchdowns filling in for an injured Donovan McNabb. Now with McNabb’s departure to Washington, Kolb will get the keys to the Italian sports car that is the Eagles offense. The University of Houston product is accustomed to high-octane schemes, as he totaled nearly 13,000 passing yards in his time on campus. I predict big things from the short-route specialist in 2010 when he will get the ball to playmakers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin on a regular basis. Projected stats: 3,500 passing yards, 24 TDs, 15 INTs
Chad Henne, MIA
There is no question that Henne has a rocket for a right arm. Problem is he plays in Wildcat-happy Miami with little help at receiver. Adding Brandon Marshall will help, as will his continued development as a complete passer. The good news is you will be able to get him for next to nothing as his average draft position on Yahoo! is 29. Be patient and wait to see if the Dolphins’ passing attack has a pulse before adding him off waivers. Potential steal if he develops a rapport with Marshall. Projected stats: 3,200 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs
Deep sleeper: Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Sanchez turned in typical rookie QB numbers in 2009: 2,600 yards, 15 total TDs, with 18 INTs, and he found himself in few if any fantasy lineups. However, the USC product showed significant signs of improvement as the season progressed, including a 92.7 passer rating in the Jets’ three playoff games. The bottom line is Sanchez is surrounded by a stacked supporting cast in Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards, and Dustin Keller. Sanchez has the potential to finish as a very solid No. 2 option as he continues to acclimate himself with the pro game. Projected stats: 2,800 yards, 18 TDs, 18 INTs, with 50% more TDs not out of the question.
RBs:
Michael Turner, ATL
How can the league’s most powerful back be on the sleeper list? It’s simple: Turner was an absolute monster through 10 games last season, racking up 831 yards and 10 TDs even as Matt Ryan lagged behind his 2008 pace. However, his injury-plagued end to the season scared away owners and dropped him from the pinnacle of draft boards. Injury-concerns aside, Turner is one of the few remaining workhorse backs in the league and will put up big numbers in 2010. If he would add pass catching to his skill set he would be in the debate for overall No. 1, but alas he hasn’t. Still, Turner will outperform his draft slot and you will not be disappointed. Projected stats: 1,600 yards, 17 TDs.
Carnell Williams, TB
2009 was a blast from the past for Buccaneers fans. The 2005 rookie sensation finally avoided the operating table, playing in all 16 games for the first time in his career after playing in just 10 the previous two seasons. ‘Cadillac’ will approach 900 yards and 40+ catches with good TD numbers in 2010 as he finally appears to be healthy. Should rookie receivers Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams help Josh Freeman open up the field then Williams could surpass his rookie numbers. Projected stats: 1,200 total yards, 40 catches, 8 TDs.
Justin Forsett, SEA
The Jim Mora, Jr. era came and went in a flash and Pete Carrol has assumed control. All signs point to a changed culture in Seattle and Forsett is poised to unseat default starter Julius Jones. Forsett is undersized at 5-8 but could post big receiving numbers to go with 1,000 yards on the ground. A shaky offensive line is one reason Forsett will not crack the top 15, but nevertheless he will outperform his draft slot. Projected stats: 1,350 total yards, 40 catches, 6 TDs.
Deep sleeper: Javon Ringer, TEN
Ringer was one of the most impressive runners in Preseason Week 1. He burned the Seahawks for 60 yards on only seven carries for an average well over eight. Ringer sits behind superstar Chris Johnson on the depth chart but will receive 50 or more carries in 2010 as coaches try to prevent a Johnson burnout. Should Johnson go down with an injury Ringer becomes a very attractive option and will be available in the latest of rounds or on the free agent wire. Projected stats: 450 total yards, 10 catches, 2 TDs.
WRs
Dwayne Bowe, KC
Bowe was an overall disappointment last season, both to coaches and fantasy owners. He battled injuries and was reportedly overweight, earning him square on the bust list after promising rookie and sophomore campaigns of 1,000 yards apiece. Bowe has wowed coaches as of late in camp with his work ethic and slimmed down frame (210 lbs from 220+). Expect a rebound year and a less anemic Chiefs offense with the addition of Thomas Jones. Projected stats: 85 catches, 1100 yards, 5 TDs.
Chaz Schilens, OAK
Schilens is an example of a phenomenal athlete held down by his Bad News Bears teammates. Despite the JaMarcus Russell debacle, Schilens caught 29 balls for 365 yards in only eight games. Now with Jason Campbell at the helm, an improved rushing attack with Michael Bush and Darren McFadden, Schilens will overcome lingering pain in his left foot to amass potentially starter-type numbers this season. Projected stats: 60 catches, 750 yards, 4 TDs.
Golden Tate, SEA
Think of Tate as a poor man’s Percy Harvin. That’s no knock on Tate’s talent but rather a reflection of the questionable Seahawks offense compared to the Favre-led juggernaut in Minnesota. Tate is raw but explosive and could draw the attention of Matt Hasselbeck early. He’s a perfect complement to possession specialist T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Projected stats: 50 catches, 680 yards, 3 TDs.
Deep sleeper: Mike Williams, SEA
Yes, that Mike Williams. The big, clunky former USC star has reunited with Pete Carroll in Seattle and has shocked the fantasy world by reporting to camp trim and ready to perform. The Seattle Times reported he looked good in scrimmage situations, drawing the praise of newly signed QB Charlie Whitehurst. No guarantees here, but potential waiver wire gold if he finally realizes his potential. Do not spend a draft pick here but keep a close eye on Seahawks training camp and keep him in mind come waiver wire time. Projected stats: 25 catches, 250 yards, 2 TDs.
Deep sleeper: Jacoby Jones, HOU
Jones currently sits behind Kevin Walter and Andre Johnson on the Texans’ depth chart, but no worries as there will be plenty of balls to go around in Houston this season with Matt Schaub under center. Walter is a big dependable target but has lost ground to the fast-climbing Jones. Jones should eventually wrest the starting spot from Walter, but even if he doesn’t then expect productive slot numbers from Jones in 2010. Projected stats: 45 catches, 630 yards, 7 TDs.
Deepest sleeper: Jordan Shipley, CIN
Colt McCoy’s favorite target has drawn praise in Bengals camp, even from Chad Ochocinco. He is behind a talented group in Ochocinco, Terrel Owens, and Antonio Bryant, but nevertheless Shipley is a deep sleeper with potential to become Wes Welker Lite. He will post good numbers in Point Per Reception leagues as he runs crossing routes underneath other teams’ coverage. Projected stats: 40 catches, 400 yards, 2 TDs.
TEs:
Brent Celek, PHI
Celek already has a leg up on other Eagles receivers due to the fact that he and Kevin Kolb are road roommates. Aside from their close relationship, Celek has earned his place among elite TEs with a stellar 76-catch, eight-TD 2009 campaign. Kolb prefers shorter routes and will look to Celek throughout the 2010 season for dependable yardage. Has great value considering he is currently being drafted seventh among TEs in Yahoo! leagues. I have him finishing third among all TEs in 2010. Projected stats: 85 catches, 935 yards, 8 TDs.
Anthony Fasano, MIA
Fasano has had a slow start to his career but keep in mind he played behind Jason Witten in Dallas and then was part of a weak passing attack in his first two years in Miami. With Brandon Marshall on board to stretch opposing defenses and an improved Chad Henne, Fasano could post top-15 numbers this season despite an ADP in the high 130s. Projected stats: 40 catches, 450 yards, 5 TDs.
Deep sleeper: Marcedes Lewis, JAX
The 6-6 Lewis made a name for himself as the top tight end in the country while at UCLA. He has failed to live up to the expectations thus far in his career but has perked up the ears of bargain hunters by virtue of head coach Jack Del Rio’s praise in camp. He even went as far as to say: “The most dominant player on our football team in the first week has been Marcedes Lewis,” he said. “He’s been absolutely sensational — blocking, catching, leading, sending the right message with his actions along with the things he’s saying and standing up for, so really proud of the start of the year he’s had.” Alert the sleeper police; Lewis is ready to break out as a fantasy star. Draft him in the latest rounds and be pleasantly surprised when he surpasses these projections. Projected stats: 45 catches, 500 yards, 3 TDs.
Grenades
QB Matt Moore, CAR
Moore capped off the 2009 season in grand fashion and has become a sleeper darling now that he has the starting job. However productive he might be in a full-season role, Jimmy Clausen turned heads with his impressive performance in the preseason opener and will likely siphon playing time from the would-be breakout candidate Moore.
Shonn Greene, NYJ
Greene has climbed draft boards after posting huge numbers in last year’s playoffs. He was an incredibly productive college player at Iowa and has shown flashes of brilliance in his short time in New York, but there might not be a more overhyped player than Greene. He still stands to lose goal line carries to red zone master LaDainian Tomlinson, and was trusted with only one carry inside the 10 yard line in 2009. One! Greene will be a solid No. 3 back this season but to draft him as anything more risks getting let down.
Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN
Shiancoe stands to post similar numbers this season if Favre returns. Problem is Favre continues to hint at his retirement, which would hurt Shiancoe’s numbers by about 30% in my projections. Avoid the impending statistical hit and look for other options— even if Favre returns it is unlikely the hard-working Shiancoe will haul in an eye-popping 11 TDs like he did last season.