The “Doug Martin for Fantasy Hall of Fame” campaign posters have already been printed.
Analyzing Martin’s statline — 272 total yards, four touchdowns — requires a double-take. You could have trotted out the Cleveland Browns of lineups this week, including Christian “still a bust” Ponder, Jermichael “one catch” Finley and a defense on bye, but if you had Martin, you still won.
Where did this guy come from? Literally, Boise State University. Figuratively, nowhere. Through seven games, Martin found himself in the midst of an average, middling rookie season for the Bucs. He was a decent fantasy option at running back, but it was understood that if you were forced to start him every week, your team needed help. What changed? Was it the bad defenses he faced? Did the blocking schemes change? Is Martin’s family currently held hostage and he’s playing for their freedom?
Something must account for this shift. Before Week Seven, he had two touchdowns. Now he has eight. Only 18 running backs have produced as many fantasy points this entire season as Martin has produced the past two weeks.
I vaguely remember fantasy outbursts of this magnitude in the past, but those games came from big-name guys like Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson (he’s garbage now, but in 2007? Whoa.), Shaun Alexander, etc. Never from some mid-major rookie who suddenly decided to find the endzone.
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So, when it comes down to brass tacks, I’m not sold on Martin. I think this is nothing more than a flash in the pan. A radiant, glowing flash that fills you with joy and warmth, but a flash, nonetheless.
Sell high on Martin. His value will never be higher than it is right now. You could flip him for a top receiver, a solid running back and a solid receiver, a top tight end not named Gronk, or even a reliable quarterback. Is your fellow owner disappointed with the inconsistent health of Maurice Jones-Drew? Trade him Martin for MJD and a receiver. When Martin regresses to the mean and MJD regains full strength, you’ll be happy you listened to the Doctor.
Here’s some players to look at on the waiver wire this week
David Wilson (running back, Giants, 42.4 percent owned in ESPN leagues) — Wilson is about to become the Giants starting running back by default. Ahmad Bradshaw is going down any day now, I’m sure of it. He nursed a foot injury all last year, and it severely limited him. Now he’s dealing with another foot injury. They say history is cyclical, right? The team claims it’s minor and Bradshaw remains active, but his workload has significantly decreased following the injury. They know something. He’s going down. And when he does, who is going to take his spot? Not Andre Brown, who is dealing with a shoulder injury of his own. No, the correct answer is third-string rookie David Wilson. Pick him up while he is still there.
Michael Floyd (wide receiver, Cardinals, 2.6 percent owned) — Floyd and the Cardinals are on bye this week, so you won’t receive any immediate gratification with this pick-up. But when they return in Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons, I think you’ll be treated with a pleasant surprise. Floyd is only a rookie, but the kid was a stud at Notre Dame. The talent is there. It took some time, as it normally does with rookies, but Floyd’s role in the Arizona offense has expanded enough to where he has some fantasy value. If the trend continues and Floyd mixes in more and more with the offense, he could be precisely the boost your team needed at the receiver position. Or he could also bust and not catch another ball the rest of the season. So it goes with 2-percent-owned rookies.
Jack is a senior in LAS. He can be reached at [email protected] and on Twitter @JCassidy10.