When Illinois held a 14-10 advantage in the fifth set of an Oct. 6 match against Penn State, few would have identified the moment as a point on which the rest of the season would be contingent. It was only after the flurry of serves and kills that followed, resulting in a 16-18 Illinois set (and 2-3 match) loss that it became clear that Illinois had missed an opportunity. And only after Illinois lost five of the subsequent seven games did it become clear how useful such a confidence boost would have been for Illinois’ confidence.

Had the Illini conquered the Nittany Lions that night and gone to 9-7 instead of falling to .500, they could have turned a weekend that ended up as a sample platter of disappointing losses (the team lost a 2-0 set advantage the previous night versus Ohio State) into a concrete example of overcoming obstacles, both external and internal. There’s no telling what effect that could have on a team still searching for confidence. Head coach Kevin Hambly has rarely been one for speculation.

As it stands, the Illini are coming off a recent four-game losing streak, still trying to regain their confidence and needing to come out on top in five of their final six games to make the NCAA tournament. The first of those six games, according to the American Volleyball Coaches Association rankings, is the most challenging: a rematch with the team from Happy Valley that Illinois thinks it should have beat.

“That was a really big heartbreaker,” sophomore hitter Liz McMahon said. McMahon had 17 of Illinois’ 65 total team kills in that game, second to redshirt freshman Jocelynn Birks’ 20.

Hambly isn’t using that contest to motivate his players — not with the NCAA tournament slipping from Illinois’ grasp with each loss.

“We have motivation because we wanna make the tournament,” Hambly said. “I don’t pull that up like, ‘Hey, we should’ve beat them, let’s go fix the wrongs,’ or whatever. That’s not really how I roll.”

Then again, he doesn’t need to bring the game up for his players to remember what happened.

“I think there’s a little bit of a revenge factor going into this one,” sophomore middle blocker Anna Dorn said. “We feel like we should’ve won that one when they were here.”

The loss took an Illinois losing streak to three games and preceded a 2-5 stretch that is part of a downward spiral that may or may not be over. If the Illini lose Thursday, their conference record drops to 5-10, and their backs officially hit the wall as far as making postseason play.

Unofficially, though, Illinois’ mentality is already “do or die,” McMahon said. After becoming anxious in the third set of Saturday’s game against Indiana, the Illini feel that they overcame the very obstacle that may have impeded them from beating Penn State a month ago.

“I think we figured out something when we were playing Indiana: that as long as we take a deep breath and don’t get really tense and uptight during the game, that we play a heck of a lot better,” Dorn said. “I think if we can extend that to this weekend and not worry when the other team’s got a couple runs of points like that, that we’re going to be OK.”

For the seniors, this will be the final time heading to State College, Pa., to face the Russ Rose-led Nittany Lions. Given the dire situation their season is in, however, setter Annie Luhrsen and company have no time for sentimentality.

“I mean, you approach it like any other game,” Luhrsen said. “It’s a competition and we’re excited because we know they’re a good team. Kinda when I was talking about matching up against Purdue last week and how we thought it’d be a really just fun and exciting match, I think the same goes for Penn State.”

Dorn added that Penn State plays a more “high,” powerful style of offense, and not a speed-oriented offense like Indiana. This allows the blockers more time to get into position, which plays to Dorn and senior middle Erin Johnson’s advantage.

Matching up well with Penn State is one thing — one that Illinois has already done this year — but beating the No. 2 team in the country will take something more. The Illini think they do have something they haven’t necessarily had all season: nothing, in the way of pressure or expectations.

“We have nothing to lose at this point,” Dorn said. “So I think that can make us dangerous.”

Eliot can be reached at [email protected] and @EliotTweet.