Many scholars consider the current Supreme Court, the Roberts Court, as one of the most conservative in decades. Even with their recent decision to uphold the Obamacare this past summer, that mindset has not changed much. This is because the ideology of the most conservative-leaning justice leans farther right than the most liberal-leaning justice that leans left.
There are fewer jobs more secure than an appointment to the Supreme Court. Once appointed to by a sitting president, it can be a life-long commitment if a justice chooses to serve that long: They can stay on until they die and some do. According to a study by Ross Stolzenberg of the University of Chicago and James Lindgren of Northwestern University, the chance of a justice dying while serving, increases just over 5 percent each year, which is increasingly greater once the justice is over the age of 70. About 45 percent of all justices have died in office, with the most recent being former Chief Justice William Rehnquist in 2005.
Within President Obama’s first term, he appointed two female judges — Judge Sonia Sotomayor in 2009 and Solicitor General Elena Kagan in 2010. Both are considered liberal judges who replaced liberal judges — so no change there. However there has been speculation that within the next four years, he might be able to make some more appointments. And I mean beyond replacing liberal-leaning justices with more liberal-leaning justices.
Currently, there are four justices over the age of 74, with the oldest being the liberal-leaning Ruth Bader Ginsburg at 79. Recently, conservative Justice Antonin Scalia, 76, has discussed retirement as a possibility.
Also at the grand old age of 76? Conservative Justice Anthony Kennedy. While they will most likely try to hold off their retirement for another four years, both cannot out rule out the possibility of a health concern developing (disclaimer — no, I am not rooting for Team Health Problems).
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So, what does this mean for the Court and for us as a country?
If President Obama has the opportunity to replace either one of the conservative justices, that effectively ends the conservative majority of the Supreme Court. A liberal Court could change the outcomes for many social issues this country faces — changes like a woman’s right to choose, affirmative action and same-sex marriage.
Let me repeat: If the liberals gain an advantage over the conservatives in the Court, and a case on marriage comes through, that may redefine the definition of marriage in the United States. Same-sex marriage might become a real possibility.
And you know what? That might save the institution of marriage. States that have allowed same-sex marriage generally see divorce rates that are lower then the national average.
Yes, I did say lower.
Back in 2010, Nate Silver found that the states that had placed a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage saw about a 1 percent rise in divorce over five years. States without? About an 8 percent divorce rate decline on average.
And no, the states allowing same-sex marriage did not report risings in cataclysmic apocalypses or human-to-dog marriages. I know, shocking.
There is no denying a majority of college-aged adults tend to lie socially left. According to Bloomberg, 71 percent of today’s freshmen college students believe in same-sex marriage.
Here on campus, one of my best friends is openly gay. He wants to get married one day, but he has stated time and time again, he does not want to get married until gay marriage is accepted in every state in the union — until it becomes a constitutional law.
Within the next ten years or so, it is my hope that our generation will want to be in the thick of political discussion. Politicians will start to take us seriously, listening to us on issues other than the rising costs of a college education. Our politicians will start leaning more socially left if we as voters continue to lean socially left.
But with the more traditional mindset of the Supreme Court, those ideologies are not reflected in a majority of our justices.
And even if both conservative justices hold on to their positions on the Court, there is still a chance for a strong liberal minority. If Justice Ginsburg decides to retire and the president replaces her with someone just as liberal, just a few decades younger, the liberal majority can be still be a real possibility down the road.
Eventually, it will be hard to deny just how socially left the American public is becoming. And our laws should theoretically reflect how we feel as a country. Because, isn’t that the point of a democracy? And last time I checked, the Constitution never explicitly states “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” should apply only to heterosexual couples.
Besides, my friend should have every right to have a legitimate wedding (which he will be inviting me to) if people like Kim Kardashian and Britney Spears can have big, fancy weddings for short-lived marriages.
Joanna is a senior in LAS. She can be reached at [email protected].