If you’ve read my column at any point, this year or in the past (Fantasy Doctor-style), you know a few things about me.

1. I’m relatively terrible at predicting things.

2. I have a complicated love life that inevitably manifests itself in my columns (here, here and here).

3. I have a passionate love for the “Fast and the Furious” movies (except for “Tokyo Drift.” Let’s all just agree that never happened).

You’ll understand then, that the highlight of the Super Bowl for me was not the game, Beyonce’s legs or the plethora of average-to-bad commercials. No, the highlight came during a commercial break midway through the first half, when BOOM, all the sudden, I was staring at a hulking, sweaty Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson asking a slightly less hulking (but no less sweaty) Vin Diesel to assist him in catching criminals. Ladies and gentlemen, “Fast and Furious 6,” coming to theaters May 24. My excitement was beyond palpable.

In other words, it was the exact opposite of how I now feel about Illinois’ chances of making the NCAA tournament. It was unthinkable in mid-December for the Illini to miss out on March’s festivities for a second straight year, and yet here we are, halfway through Big Ten play, looking at a landmine-filled path to the ball.

Coming off a fourth straight loss at home and with Indiana, the No. 1 team in the country, coming to town Thursday night, prospects of a tournament birth look bleak. Then again, nobody thought Dom (Diesel) and Brian (Paul Walker) could pull off a car heist that included robbing the Rio de Janeiro police department of millions of dollars and destroying half the city in the getaway, but they managed to pull it off. Let’s take a brief game-by-game look at the Illini’s nine remaining regular-season games to determine what their re-adjusted ceiling and floor (or maybe, as the season spirals out of control, their basement, crawlspace or underground bomb shelter) might be.

Feb. 7 vs. No. 1 Indiana — Illinois is fortunate enough to not have to play in Bloomington, Ind., this season, so the Illini will get their chance to knock off the Hoosiers at home, which is really the only advantage they have in this game. Indiana is better at every position and plays exceptionally well together. It’d take an off night from the Hoosiers and an all-around exceptional performance from Illinois for it to win.

Chance of winning — 2 percent

Feb. 10 at No. 18 Minnesota — The road gets easier, but not significantly against a Golden Gophers squad that handled Illinois with relative ease a month ago in Champaign. Minnesota has struggled since then but still poses a significant mismatch on the glass for Illinois. Still, the Illini have played better on the road recently and will be in desperate need of a win. They may hang tough.

Chance of winning — 30 percent

Feb. 13 versus Purdue — An absolute must-win. Illinois’ loss at Purdue to open Big Ten play was the first sign of its season derailing (no, it hasn’t been quite as spectacular as Dom Brian’s train heist ). No player on Illinois’ roster has experienced a win against the Boilermakers, whose gritty play is often the antithesis of the Illini’s, but unless they’re totally checked out by this point, Illinois will find a way to win against an underwhelming Purdue team.

Chance of winning — 75 percent

Feb. 17 at Northwestern — I can’t fathom how Illinois could lose to a Northwestern team without its best player (Drew Crawford) twice in one season, but stranger things have happened. Case in point, Dom defeating Hobbs (the Rock) in hand-to-hand combat when the Rock is probably a foot taller and 75 pounds heavier. Even so, slight edge to Illinois.

Chance of winning — 55 percent

Feb. 21 versus Penn State — This is the only lock left on the schedule. And if the Illini lose to the Nittany Lions, they don’t even belong in the NIT. I have as much confidence in an Illinois win as I do in a heartwrenching, emotional scene between Dom and Paul Walker about how to be a father. True role models.

Chance of winning — 99 percent

Feb. 24 at No. 3 Michigan — Let’s just agree that this is a loss and move on.

Chance of winning — 3 percent

March 2 versus Nebraska — The Cornhuskers aren’t much better than Penn State. They just have one bigger, fatter white dude.

Chance of winning — 95 percent

March 5 at Iowa — Unlike recent years, the Hawkeyes are no longer a pushover; a combination of talented freshmen and experienced upperclassmen have returned them to relevance. Iowa is also fantastic on its home court, its only two losses there coming to No. 1 Indiana and No. 12 Michigan State by a combined seven points. Due to missed opportunities for easier wins at Purdue and against Northwestern, Illinois can’t afford to lose this game, which makes it exactly the type of game the Illini tend to falter in.

Chance of winning — 40 percent

March 10 at No. 10 Ohio State — Illinois’ convincing win over the Buckeyes in early January was the last time the Illini have resembled a tournament team. Since then, the two teams have gone in opposite directions, Ohio State only losing twice (by two in overtime at Michigan and by three at Michigan State), while Illinois has lost six of seven. Deshaun Thomas and an increasingly competent supporting cast will find all sorts of holes in the Illini’s lackluster defense.

Chance of winning: 17 percent

By that reckoning, there are three games (versus Purdue, Penn State and Nebraska) that Illinois must win and should. That gets the team to five wins in the conference. Let’s give the Illini the benefit of the doubt and award them victories at Northwestern and at Iowa, a shaky prospect at best. That’s seven wins. The benchmark for at-large tournament teams is generally at least a .500 record in conference play. With the Big Ten so strong this season, 8-10 could do it, but 7-11 is pushing luck. That means the Illini would have to pick up a win either against Indiana, at Minnesota, at Michigan or at Ohio State to climb to eight wins, all while not blowing an easily winnable game as we’ve seen them do time and time again in recent years.

At best, and this isn’t a glass half full view, it’s a, “Hey man, that glass was full 30 seconds ago and you’re now just blindly pouring water everywhere” view. Illinois finds its nonconference form and gets back to .500 in the Big Ten, pulling off two miraculous road upsets over ranked teams.

At worst, we could be looking at a four-win Big Ten season, with the only remaining victories coming against Penn State and Nebraska.

The Illini can spin it however they want, say they take it game by game and they’re just trying to get better each day, but the writing is on the wall. Get results or say hello to the NIT (or the College Basketball Invitational. Or the men’s intramural league.

Oh wait, nevermind, they can’t join that because it somehow can’t accommodate half the students who want to play and Campus Rec is full of bums).

That’s not what the Rock is cooking.

Daniel can be reached at [email protected] and @danielmillermc.