After the Illinois women’s basketball team defeated Indiana on Feb. 23 in front of 3,088 fans, the largest paid crowd of the season, the team left Assembly Hall with a 16-10 record and clinched the program’s first season above .500 in the Big Ten in a decade. Things were certainly looking up for the much-improved Illini with two games remaining in the regular season.

The Illini lost their last two games of the regular season, losing out on a first-round bye at the Big Ten Tournament. In the first round Thursday, Wisconsin proved to be too much for Illinois.

The NCAA tournament seemed like a certainty for Illinois a couple weeks ago, but ESPN’s Charlie Creme now projects the Illini as one of the next four out, with 10 teams currently ahead of Illinois.

Here are the reasons behind Illinois’ collapse and a season-high three-game losing streak to end the season.

Late-game execution

Key stat — Illinois is 0-6 in games decided by four points or less.

Illinois has struggled in close games all season, losing all six games decided by four points or less. If the Illini won even half of their close games, the team would have a 19-10 record and would be a safe bet for the NCAA tournament.

In its last three games, in particular, Illinois has had poor second halves.

On Feb. 28 against Ohio State, Illinois shot only 23.5 percent from the field in the second half, while allowing the Buckeyes to convert 57.9 percent of its field-goal attempts.

On March 3 at Purdue, Illinois led 50-47 with 11:48 remaining in the game, but the Boilermakers went on to end the contest on a 29-15 run.

In its last outing against Wisconsin in the first round of the conference tournament, Illinois took the lead after junior guard Amber Moore nailed a 3-pointer with 42 seconds remaining, putting the Illini up 57-54. Wisconsin would finish the game on a 4-0 run fueled by two late-game Illinois fouls.

“I think we just have to learn how to keep the edge,” Moore said. “We’re a better team when we’re on edge and we’re being the most aggressive team. And we’re the first one on the floor for loose balls, and we didn’t show that in the second half (against Wisconsin).”

“We haven’t been good playing with leads, honestly,” Illinois head coach Matt Bollant said. “We built a lead playing aggressively and playing hard in the first half, and then we didn’t do that in the second half. We waited until we really got down 10 before we started to be the most aggressive team, and that was a struggle.

Facing teams multiple times

Key stat — Illinois is 2-4 when facing teams for the second or third time this season, while the Illini went 4-1 when they played opponents for the first time.

The Illini had success this season when facing their opponents for the first time.

On Jan. 6, Illinois defeated Ohio State 79-73 in Columbus. Four days later, Illinois had its largest Big Ten victory of the season, defeating Northwestern 65-47 on the road. Illinois also won its first meeting against Wisconsin and Minnesota, although it dropped its first matchup against Purdue in overtime.

On Jan. 20, only 10 days after it dominated Northwestern, Illinois lost to the Wildcats 62-58 at Assembly Hall. Illinois would also lose its next meeting against Ohio State, falling 64-53 on senior night on Feb. 28. Although Illinois swept Wisconsin and Minnesota in the regular season, the Badgers got another crack at Illinois in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament.

Wisconsin beat Illinois in last Thursday’s matchup after the Illini defeated Wisconsin by an average margin of 7.5 points in the first two meetings.

Illinois’ struggles can be partially be attributed to opponents’ adjustments to the Buzz. The unorthodox defense catches teams off guard when they play against the Buzz for the first time, but it loses some of its effectiveness once the team has gained familiarity with Bollant’s style.

Foul trouble

Key stat — Illinois ranks 310th in the nation in personal fouls per game at 18.8 per game and has had a player foul out 30 times this season, which leads the NCAA.

In Illinois’ last three games, four starters have picked up three personal fouls or more in a game.

Against Ohio State, every starter committed three or more fouls with sophomore guard Alexis Smith being the only player who didn’t commit at least four fouls. Sophomore guard Ivory Crawford fouled out.

In the team’s next game against Purdue, every starter committed a foul four or more times except Moore. Crawford fouled out for her second consecutive game.

Facing Wisconsin on Thursday, every player fouled three or more times except for Moore, while Smith and Penn fouled out. 

Penn sat for the final 8:01 of the first half against Wisconsin after picking up her third foul of the game when attempting to grab an offensive rebound. She played only nine first-half minutes.

“The first couple calls were definitely questionable,” Penn said. “In the first half, we were doing really well without me. But in the second half, when (the Badgers) went on their run, it definitely hurt to not be out there.”

After Penn got her fourth foul early in the half, the Badgers went on a 15-5 run with Penn sitting on the bench, cutting Illinois’ lead to 36-35 with 12:01 remaining in the game after trailing by 10 points at halftime.

Penn fouled out with three seconds left on a drive by Wisconsin junior guard Morgan Paige, who would go on to make both free throws, propelling the Badgers to the 58-57 win.

“Karisma only played 22 minutes. It was kind of devastating to our team and hurt us,” Bollant said. “She just never really got in the flow because of that foul trouble. So that definitely was something that hurt our team. I thought we adjusted in the first half and did a really good job in the first half playing without her. But the second half, we struggled to get in the flow offensively and be able to get the ball inside and get easy baskets, which she normally gets.”

Michael can be reached at [email protected].