Sunday was the third season premiere of the Game of Thrones on HBO. And it was excellent. Am I the only one who wants a dragon? From Tyrion Lannister’s longing to be accepted by his father, Jon Snow’s devotion to fighting for the good, and Daenerys Targaryen’s vengeful pursuit of an army to kill everyone — the show couldn’t have delivered more.
Unfortunately, I’m not talking about the war in Westeros. I’m referring to North Korea’s obsession with nuclear power and a preconceived notion that the U.S. is seeking to annex the Korean Peninsula by force.
My brother asked me the other day why more people aren’t concerned with North Korea’s recent rhetoric. I told him, mostly because it is just that — rhetoric.
The North has consistently produced such rhetoric through its sate-run news agency, KCNA, with little-to-no action.
The question is, though, is this time different? Is this the time the North finally acts upon its threats?
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It is difficult to predict the nature of a North Korean attack on the U.S. or its allies. As we have seen over the years, the North is suspected to have sunk a South Korean ship, shelled a South Korean island, tested nuclear weapons and engaged in cyber-terrorism.
Despite tough sanctions, the North has also repeatedly tested its long-range missile capabilities.
Since 1993, the North has tested five of these missiles, known as intercontinental ballistic missiles. Each one had been a failure until its most recent test last December. The December test put a weather satellite into orbit, though its condition is rather unknown. It does, however, mark an accomplishment because this technology “could one day deliver a nuclear warhead capable of hitting targets as far away as the continental United States.”
What is worrying about these tests is that the frequency is increasing with two of the ICBM tests occurring in 2012. Despite the rudimentary technology, the success of developing any long-range missile should not be discounted.
Once one rogue nation has the technology to launch a long-range nuclear-capable missile, the threat of selling this technology to any buyer rises exponentially. The proliferation of such technology poses an even greater risk to allies in the Middle East if Iran obtains it.
This February, North Korea conducted a nuclear test underground. The third of its kind since 2006. As a result, the U.S. sought even tougher sanctions, which were approved by the United Nations at the beginning of March.
However, this escalated tensions to new levels instead of deterring the North’s aggressive actions. The North now believes it has the right to a “pre-emptive nuclear strike” on the U.S. And when any country begins to think like this, it is a cause to start worrying about, even just a little.
The North has demonstrated that it is erratic at best, predictable in the least.
The annual U.S.-South Korean joint military drills began March 11, and it marked an end to the 60-year long Korean War armistice according to the North. The change in language is peculiar because this isn’t the first time we have participated in joint military drills. So, why the change in rhetoric now?
Perhaps it is the new leader’s attempt to thwart the “U.S. imperialist aggressor” and prove himself as Supreme Leader of the People’s Republic of Korea.
With the death of Kim Jong-il in 2011, 30-year-old Kim Jong-un’s shrouded rise to power has exposed the region to further uncertainty. His lack of experience and immaturity could lead to disastrous and unintended consequences. Since the U.S. is unfamiliar with his mentality, his actions are unpredictable, which means his words should not be glossed over.
Even if U.S. intelligence believes the North has no capability to strike the U.S., as Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel put it, “You only need to be wrong once, when it comes to nuclear threats.”
To demonstrate the U.S. ability to strike “at will,” two nuclear B-2 stealth bombers flew from Missouri to South Korea and back on March 28 in a single continuous mission. Kim Jong-un retaliated with familiar rhetoric yet atypical action: the North and its forces are ready “to settle accounts with the U.S.”
KCNA released photos of Kim Jong-un signing the order to prepare its rocket forces to strike U.S. mainland and areas in the Pacific. The backdrop of the photos detailed target sites in the U.S. — an attempt at serious propaganda.
The recent actions and change in rhetoric by the North begs the question of whether the escalating tensions should be a cause for concern. How much weight should be placed on the young leader’s attempt to prove himself? In dynamic circumstances like this, anything could happen. And now is the time for something to happen.
Tommy is a senior in Business. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @tommyheiser.