No, the Chicago Bulls are not going to win a championship this year.

After consecutive years of claiming the best record in the league, the Bulls would be lucky if they reached the second round in the Eastern Conference.

Losing Derrick Rose can do that to a team.

Minus the 2010-11 MVP, Chicago is likely facing the Indiana Pacers in the first round of the playoffs beginning this weekend. The Pacers are a far cry from the first round matchups the Bulls have faced the past couple of seasons. Considering Chicago went 1-4 against the Philadelphia 76ers without Rose in the postseason last year, this year’s playoffs won’t get any easier.

Even if Chicago surpasses expectations and scraps its way past the first round, it’s just a matter of time before the Miami Heat would end the Bulls’ bleak title hopes. Will next season be any better?

The Bulls will most likely receive the 18th pick in this year’s draft after receiving the 29th and 30th picks the last two years, respectively. There is some value in the mid-to-late first round, even if this field is considered one of the weakest since 2000.

ESPN’s Chad Ford projects the Bulls to select Georgia shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. But with the emergence of Jimmy Butler, the Bulls may look for a backup big man to replace the departed Omer Asik. Expect Kansas center Jeff Withey and Louisville center Gorgui Dieng to be among the names Chicago considers come draft day. Withey and Dieng would step in right away as rookies and prevent Joakim Noah from playing 37.5 minutes per game again next season.

The 18th or 19th selection in the draft isn’t the sexiest pick, but the Bulls have had a lot of late-draft success in recent seasons. Look no further than forward Taj Gibson, whom the Bulls signed to a four-year deal worth $38 million last offseason, and Butler.

This kind of production from Butler in particular is going to make the Bulls at least consider trading Luol Deng this summer.

Although Deng is a back-to-back All-Star and All-Defense performer, his $14.2 million on the books for next season is tough to swallow. Deng’s expiring contract will be a talking point of a Bulls front office with a $77 million payroll. Butler has proved he can handle a starting role and, as of late, has even outplayed Deng. Butler is also about five years younger and $13 million cheaper next season. As perfect as it sounds to unload Deng’s contract and let Butler do his thing as a starter, the move would have plenty of risk.

Butler has proved he could play in long stretches when Tom Thibodeau needs him to, but Deng leads the NBA in minutes per game for the second straight season this year. There is a reason Thibs can’t sit Deng; he just means too much to the Bulls. Even stats don’t do justice to Deng’s impact on the team. If Chicago balks at trading Deng, there are plenty of other ways to save money.

Chicago fans have urged for Carlos Boozer to be released via the Amnesty clause. While Boozer’s two years and $32 million remaining on his contract are rich, the bigger problem is that Gibson may be the more important player.

When looking at the raw numbers, Boozer averages 16.1 points and 9.7 rebounds per game, compared with just 7.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game for Gibson. But if you look at advanced metrics, Gibson is the superior all-around player.

While Boozer is heralded as the better scorer, he and Gibson are tied in points per play offensively at 0.9. Even when looking at the post, where Boozer is considered one of the best in the league, Gibson ranks 18th in the NBA in points per play in the post, while Boozer ranks 67th. It’s not even close on defense, as Gibson ranks 60th in the league in points per play allowed, compared with a 152nd overall ranking by Boozer.

The Bulls are also outscored by 3.8 points per 100 possessions with Boozer on the court, whereas they outscore opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions with Gibson in the lineup, according to NBA.com. That 5.2 net rating is the best on the team. Gibson had a net rating of 15.1 last season, which was even greater than Rose’s 10.6.

The Bulls could also release Richard Hamilton in addition to amnestying Boozer. Only about $1 million of his $5 million contract is guaranteed next season. Even with the newfound money, the Bulls may wait until 2014 to actually use it.

Rose will return next season, but not the Rose we know and love. Expect Rose to need a couple of months or even longer to shake off the rust. Point guards Ricky Rubio and Iman Shumpert, who both tore their ACLs last season, had long recovery periods before returning to form. Rubio’s points per game has increased every month from December to March. Shumpert’s field goal percentage was only 33.8 in the first half of the season and has jumped to 41.4 since the All-Star game. Since Rose missed even more time than those two, there may be an even longer adjustment period. With Nate Robinson likely leaving via free agency, the Bulls will suffer while Rose gets his legs under him.

Taking into account the uncertainty of Rose and the high payroll, expect the Bulls to finish better next season, but not quite reach championship level. The summer of 2014 is when the Bulls will have more options to move into title contention.

If Boozer is not amnestied this summer, he is as good as gone by 2014. With Deng’s contract expiring as well as numerous others by then, only Rose, Noah, Gibson, Butler and Marquis Teague will remain on the roster from this season. The Bulls will also most likely have draft picks from this season and next on the payroll. This should give Chicago enough flexibility to once again pursue the members of Miami’s Big Three.

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all have early termination options for the 2014-15 season that will likely be exercised. LeBron is a long shot for the Bulls, considering his second option would likely be returning to Cleveland if he did leave Miami. Wade, on the other hand, is from Chicago and was close to signing with the Bulls in 2010. He will be 32 by then, but he is still among the league’s best players.

The Bulls would also have as good of a chance as any team to sign Bosh. Of Miami’s Big Three, he is the most likely to depart. Bosh ranks 10th in the league in PER among centers. Miami may have to let Bosh leave with the increase in tax penalties in the new CBA.

If none of the Big Three pan out, the Bulls can ditch free agency and look at the trade market. Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kevin Love, who hasn’t been afraid to voice his concerns with the future of the organization, has a player option for the 2015-16 season. Knowing he may leave, Minnesota may be willing to depart with the All-Star forward just like Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Deron Williams and Chris Paul who were traded by their respective franchises. The Bulls could offer a trade including Gibson and the Charlotte Bobcats draft pick that Chicago owns. The pick, which the Bulls received in the Tyrus Thomas trade, is protected until 2016. This pick will likely be in the top-10 with the Bobcats continuing to lose year after year. The Bulls can also offer European sensation Nikola Mirotic, who is unlikely to leave Real Madrid until 2014. Mirotic is the only two-time recipient of the Euroleague’s Rising Star Award.

One star just isn’t enough to win a championship in this era, even if he’s a former MVP.

Michael can be reached at [email protected] and on Twitter @m_dubb.