The first round of the NBA playoffs is finally underway.
Underdogs have not fared well in the early going, losing all eight opening road games. Expect plenty of compelling games in the future, even with six of the first eight playoff games being decided by double digits.
Here are the playoff series to watch out for in the first round.
5. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets (OKC leads 1-0)
I know what you’re saying: “How could this series be entertaining when the Thunder smacked the Rockets 120-91 in Game 1 on Sunday?” Well, first of all, we are all witnessing history.
Get The Daily Illini in your inbox!
Any stat geek will tell you margin of victory is a more accurate indicator of success than wins and losses. For example, the Miami Heat had the league’s best record at 66-16 with a MOV of 7.9. The Thunder had a record of 60-22, but its MOV was 9.2. That number is the seventh highest MOV in NBA history in the 3-point era. All six of the teams ahead of Oklahoma City had at least 65 wins and, more importantly, ended up winning the title. This kind of success is surprising for the Thunder, considering what they lost in the offseason.
That key departure, James Harden, makes this series that much more interesting. Harden has emerged as a superstar with the Rockets, averaging the fifth-most points per game (PPG) in the league at 25.9. The addition of Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik and Harden over the summer has improved Houston’s offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) from 12th in the league to sixth this season. The Rockets’ 106.0 PPG ranks second in the league to Denver. The Thunder are right behind them averaging 105.7 PPG.
Expect fast-paced, high-scoring affairs the rest of this series between these two. The Rockets may have been shell-shocked in Game 1, but OKC would be wise to keeps its foot on the pedal.
Prediction: Thunder in five
4. No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers (SA leads 1-0)
No series in the first round has better storylines than this matchup.
The Spurs and Lakers have faced each other 11 times previously in the postseason, with LA winning eight of the series. There is a lot to watch for, even without Kobe Bryant.
When is San Antonio going to get worse? Tim Duncan is about to turn 37 and just had the sixth-best player efficiency rating in the NBA. Manu Ginobili will turn 36 this summer, yet he led the Spurs in scoring with 18 points in a 91-79 win in Game 1 on Sunday. Tony Parker would have been an MVP candidate had he not sat out three weeks with an ankle sprain.
The Spurs play at the sixth-fastest pace (number of possessions a team uses per game) and have the seventh-most efficient offense in the league, despite having an average age of 28.
The Lakers are the fourth-fastest team in the league and right behind the Spurs in offensive efficiency, ranking eighth. What separates these teams is on the defensive end, where San Antonio ranks third in the league in defensive efficiency and LA sits at 18th. There is no excuse to have a below league-average defense with three-time Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard as your center.
Even if the Spurs continue to dominate this series, watching the Lakers lose is entertaining in and of itself.
Prediction: Spurs in six
3. No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies (LA leads 1-0)*
These teams went the distance in last season’s first round, so expect nothing less this time around.
This series pits two teams with opposite identities. The Clippers bring a flashy offensive attack with Chris Paul, who constantly pushes the tempo and looks to lob the ball. Although LA’s 19th-ranked pace is slower than most would expect, the Clippers are a Jamaican track team compared to the Grizzlies.
Only New Orleans played slower than Memphis this season. Their offensive efficiency was only 18th in the NBA, compared with the Clippers’ fourth-ranked offense. The Grizzlies play this way by design. The slowed pace allows Memphis to punish its opponents with its second-ranked defense. The Clippers are no joke on that end either, ranking ninth in the league.
Look no further for a reason to watch this series than the big man conglomerate of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph of Memphis against the high-flying duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. The under-the-rim vs. through-the-rim matchup could decide the outcome of this series.
Prediction: Clippers in seven
2. No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics (NYK leads 1-0)
The Knicks and Celtics hate each other.
The rivalry between these teams escalated when Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Garnett pushed and shoved in the fourth quarter of a game on Jan. 7. Both players received technical fouls, but Anthony wasn’t done. After the game, security had to stop Anthony from approaching Garnett near the team bus. Then, last Saturday, Tyson Chandler also received a technical after giving Garnett an extra shove after the whistle.
The Knicks won 85-78 in Game 1, but needed to hold the Celtics to 25 second half points to escape with the victory. Carmelo Anthony and Jeff Green were great, leading their teams with 36 and 26 points, respectively, but the key matchup in this series is between J.R. Smith and Avery Bradley.
Smith, who was named the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year on Monday, is instant offense. Smith led all bench players averaging 18.1 points per game this season. He was held to only 15 points on 7-of-19 shooting — including 1-of-7 from three — thanks to Boston’s defensive ace Bradley on Saturday.
Bradley isn’t going to make Celtics fans forget about Rondo anytime soon, but man, this dude can defend. Bradley ranked 11th in the league in points per play allowed during the regular season, according to Synergy Sports. If Boston is going to upset New York, Bradley will need to continue his stellar defense. The Celtics will also need to score more than eight points in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Knicks in six
1. No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors (DEN leads 1-0)
If Game 1 was any indication, this series is going to be awesome.
The last 15 seconds of Saturday’s contest showed why we love playoff basketball.
With nowhere to go and trailing by three, Jarrett Jack of the Warriors passed the ball out to Stephen Curry in the corner. Curry, who set the NBA record for 3-pointers made in a season with 272, pump-faked Ty Lawson and drained the game-tying 3-pointer with 14 seconds left. That is when Kobe Bryant — I mean Andre Miller — took over.
Miller, who already had a game-high 26 points, drove past Draymond Green for a layup to put the Nuggets up 97-95 with 1.3 seconds remaining to seal it.
With David Lee ruled out for the rest of the series with a torn right hip flexor, neither team features an All-Star on its active roster. Players like Miller will have to continue to step up for both teams.
Klay Thompson is another unheralded player who could make an impact in this series. Thompson led the Warriors in scoring with 22 points in Game 1 and made 211 3-pointers during the regular season. Andrew Bogut’s rebounding prowess will be appreciated, as he took down a game-high 14 boards Saturday. Bogut is a beast defensively when healthy, displayed by his four blocks and a steal in Game 1.
Golden State may struggle without Lee, given Denver’s versatile attack. The Denver bench outscored its starters 49-48 in Game 1, with Miller and Corey Brewer both scoring double digits. Excluding injured players in Danilo Gallinari and Lee, the Nuggets had eight players average over eight points per game during the regular season compared with only five by the Warriors. In a drawn-out series, depth may be the difference.
Expect an up-and-down series with both teams ranking top four in the league in pace. More games like Saturday’s classic will be in store.
Prediction: Denver in six
*Game No. 2 not included
Michael can be reached at [email protected].