With the penultimate round of the NBA playoffs at least half underway, four teams will watch at home, thinking if they had given a little bit more, they could have won their respective series.

The Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors should each take away very different lessons from their second round defeats. A team that loses in the second round is usually either on the rise or on the decline (or the Atlanta Hawks from the past five years). How does this year’s class of conference semifinal losers stack up?

Chicago Bulls

It’s nearly impossible to view Chicago’s season in a greater context. This team, assembled last offseason, is likely to disband its current form and change completely with the return of Derrick Rose. Like a spinoff of your favorite sitcom that’s better than you feared it would be, Bulls fans should take caution not to stick to simple mathematics in assessing their team’s future. In other words, you don’t simply add the greatness and production of Derrick Rose and figure he pushes them over the top.

You have to realign completely. Nate Robinson was on a veteran minimum, and it’s hard to see where he fits into this team next season. With Rose back starting, Nate will be relegated to bench duty, but Kirk Hinrich is all but cemented into the second team point guard spot. That means Nate would have to play the two, and that would create a defensive liability, which is not what you want your bench to provide. You have Richard Hamilton as a shooting guard, but he’s shown that he can’t be relied on for an 82-game season, even with limited minutes.

In other words, it’s messy.

What you end up with is a season where you overachieved and got to watch more basketball than you thought you would. You saw Jimmy Butler grow into basically the next Luol Deng while Taj Gibson leveled off in a way that may cause you to rethink his $38 million contract. The biggest story of your year, Robinson, is basically irrelevant to your team, unless you want to bring him back as your backup two guard, which means no trying to re-sign Belinelli. Both had the best seasons of their careers and would probably love to come back, but there’s not that much room on the bus, especially if Chicago takes a shooting guard in the draft.

Next year, it’s basically a reset. You have your franchise player back, but your momentum from this year evaporates. With that fact, it’s hard to think the Bulls will make a significant step forward next season.

New York Knicks

With a loss to the Pacers, the Knicks showed a lack of championship grit. It’s nothing new for Carmelo, who has spawned a monkey on his back. His career arc is very similar to Dirk Nowitzki’s, and you’d like to see Carmelo elevate his game in the way Dirk did two years back, but he needs to be paired with another huge talent to succeed — and not a scoring power forward.

Tyson Chandler looks a step slower than the Defensive Player of the Year that anchored Dallas’s 2011 title run. The Knicks need to retool their bigs. They need someone to be a floor general when Anthony’s feeling funky. That’s why they brought in Jason Kidd, but Kidd was not-his-old-self when he won the title with Dallas, let alone two years later in New York.

You could tell in the closing moments of New York’s Game 6 loss to Indiana that Anthony was embarrassed and wanted to be somewhere else. There were not positives to take away from the year, and he needed to play better when it counted. You could tell it stung him deep, which is what you want to see if you’re a Knicks fan. Carmelo’s done becoming good. Now all that’s left to do is win. I would expect him to be a more poised, mature player going forward. All that’s left is for the Knicks management to assemble a team that can win. This one cannot. They need a different backcourt, more depth up front, and probably a different head coach.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Tired of being second, Kevin Durant? Sorry, had to.

The Thunder’s season was the first backward step the team has taken since moving from Seattle, and that can’t sit well with fans. The team looked weaker without James Harden off the bench all year, though it was obvious he was ready for an expanded role, given how well he did in Houston. Then you have Russell Westbrook’s injury, which validated the maligned point guard’s aggressive style.

The Thunder looked like a team playing with the flu. They were just a little less energetic, a little less dynamic, and a little less competitive. The Grizzlies took advantage.

This solidified the need to keep Durant and Westbrook together, for better and worse. But it also illuminated how weak the team is for not having a more balanced offense. Scott Brooks is a couple years away from Mike Brown territory, where he can’t win with a great roster because of his system. Too much of the burden is on Westbrook and Durant to create shots for themselves. The secret to the Thunder is they’re not really that fun to watch offensively when Durant and Westbrook aren’t filming highlight tapes.

They need to add more scoring to loosen the burden on their two top guys. Serge Ibaka has to develop more of an inside game. Durant needs to add to his game to avoid being too much like Carmelo Anthony — a great scorer who doesn’t add enough other elements to win a title.

Golden State Warriors

This year could not have gone better for Golden State. Stephen Curry turned into a star, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and the rest of their young core got quality playoff experience. Andrew Bogut emerged as a key component of the team. Interestingly enough, David Lee emerged as one who was sort of expendable, so long as Bogut is on the floor. He could add to what they have, however, if he steps up his defense and rebounding.

For a team that played a deep bench, the Warriors lack strong depth. That should develop as their young players improve, but if you’re looking for Jarrett Jack to provide veteran leadership, you’re in a tough spot. This team is almost as fun to watch as the ‘07 group that shocked the Mavericks (and the world), with a little less swagger. The way they lost poise with big leads late in games was alarming but can be chalked up to youth. Of the four teams that lost in the second round, the Warriors are the most likely to regress next season, if only because there’s no way they get an easy first round match in the Western Conference.

You could see this core developing in the same way Oklahoma City did with Durant, Harden and Westbrook, though it remains to be seen whether they can reach the level of play that got OKC to the Finals. Stephen Curry’s jump shot isn’t going anywhere, and if Thompson and Barnes improve, the sky is the limit for head coach Mark Jackson’s squad.

Eliot is a senior in Media. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @EliotTweet.