Illinois fans have learned to loathe this kind of a situation.

The Orange and Blue haven’t laid claim to a national title in a major sport since the football team won the 1951 Rose Bowl. There have been a couple of close calls, but in general, Illinois early season success presages Illinois late season failure.

So when the Illini surprised even their optimistic fans by carrying a 3-1 record into the conference season, fans were happy but also quite leery.

A drubbing in Nebraska was upsetting, yes, but also more comfortable. As a fan, you get into this cycle of pessimism and self-fulfilling prophecies begin to blossom and before you know it, your team is exactly who you thought it was. You knew it.

Illinois in five games has gone from being utterly forgettable, to a buzzworthy team, to a mediocre Big Ten squad. Tim Beckman is hoping his team has one more upward turn for this year to become a respectable conference challenger.

I think they make that turn this Saturday — conventional Illinois fan wisdom can kick rocks.

Recent history against the Badgers tells us that Illinois will play tough, but likely come up short by a possession or two. Examining the last 10 Illini-Badgers matchups, the average score is Wisconsin 30, Illinois 23, while the median would be Wisconsin 29, Illinois 20. This is pretty good for Illinois considering where these two programs have been recently. That tells us that Illinois typically plays Wisconsin tough, either because Wisconsin has bigger fish to fry or because Illinois sees Wisconsin as a really delicious-looking fish that it would love to fry.

Of the factors that will play into Saturday’s game, the environment looms large as an area that will differentiate our memory of this game from that of others — usually when Illinois plays Wisconsin, it’s sunny out, the Badgers are in white jerseys, the Illini in blue. Saturday will be the first time Illinois plays Wisconsin under the lights.

Wisconsin’s luck at night has been less than stellar lately. The Badgers have lost their last three regular-season night games. Of course, they beat Nebraska 70-31 in the Big Ten championship game at night last year, but that’s neither here nor there.

Wisconsin’s firmly affixed itself in the passenger’s seat of the Big Ten next to Ohio State. After exhibiting dominance against Northwestern, and seeing Michigan lose the charm of its undefeated record, the Badgers have emerged alongside Nebraska as conference best-of-the-rests.

Illinois needs Wisconsin to have reason to look past it. A 39-19 loss on its schedule sure makes Illinois look weak, and a 35-6 win against Northwestern makes Wisconsin look strong. But looks can be deceiving, and a couple Wisconsin mistakes coupled with an unfamiliar tenacity from Illinois could make things very interesting indeed.

Common thought is that Illinois can only win in a shootout. Wisconsin allowed 32 points to Arizona State, 31 to Ohio State, and 16 to its other four opponents combined. A score in the forties is a bit unreasonable to expect of this contest. At least from Illinois. If Wisconsin’s on its game, we could be headed there.

Illinois’ secondary will need to survive Jared Abbrederis and company. Illinois’ defensive line will need to withstand the push of Wisconsin’s ever-heavy front line. If you give enough effort to put the game in the hands of Jonathan Brown and Mason Monheim’s playmaking abilities, you’re doing it right.

Illinois needs both its running backs to perform at their best. Donovonn Young — and I believe his efforts will be more crucial than Josh Ferguson’s — needs to be decisive and strong, and not fumble the ball, granted his cough-up against Nebraska was a weird play more so than a product of bad ball security. Ferguson needs to demand focus of Wisconsin’s defense and find at least moderate success anyway. Nathan Scheelhaase has come in two forms this season, on and off. He needs to be on. When he’s been on, Illinois has won. 

Bill Cubit’s trickeration needs to be poignant and not overzealous. Trick plays can change a game, but they also turn momentum against you if they fail and earn you nothing but a lost down.

None of these demands are unreasonable. Illinois has a shot to prove itself, and win an important game for the first time since beating Northwestern in 2011 for a homecoming treat.

Fans are used to the Illini failing to cash in on these opportunities, but it’s a new era now. 

I think they do it. Who is history, after all, to say otherwise? 

Eliot is a senior in Media. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @EliotTweet.