This is part one of a two-part NBA season preview. For part two, ranking the NBA’s top 100 players, click here.

No matter the end result of this season, this year still falls under the era of basketball that belongs to the Miami Heat and, more specifically, to LeBron James.

As much as fans hated seeing James join Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, it’s been a greater pleasure seeing teams jump higher to reach that bar. San Antonio was a rebound away from reaching that bar in the 2013 finals.

The Heat stay atop their throne, making slight changes to their roster but keeping the majority of the squad intact. It was the rest of the league that spent the offseason shifting paradigms to try and match Miami.

The San Antonio Spurs and Indiana Pacers are right at the cusp, having each taken Miami to seven games. The Chicago Bulls played the Heat tough and now get an MVP-caliber player back in Derrick Rose. Brooklyn basically absorbed everything good about Boston to form a supergroup squad. Oklahoma City will get Russell Westbrook back. Houston paired two of the NBA’s best and is now looking for titles.

The pool of contenders is growing and bloodthirsty. The Heat hold the title belt, but will need to elevate their level of play to retain it and earn a third consecutive title.

To examine each team heading into 2013-14, I’ve decided to rank them on three metrics — think of them as X, Y and Z coordinates — to get a better idea of what each team is heading into the season.

The first of these metrics is last year’s finish. I kept it simple, with three different levels: Successful, mediocre and bad. Winning more than 45 games earns a status of “successful,” winning between 45 and 30 games constitutes “mediocre,” and managing fewer than 30 wins dictates a “bad” distinction. Under these rules, there were 10 “successful” teams, 12 “mediocre teams and eight “bad” ones.

The second metric, which is more subjective, is the team’s offseason changes. Some teams made moves to get better. Other teams made moves to get worse, or lost players that made them better. Some teams stayed the same. I graded these on a five-point scale, more or less. Teams either “supercharged” their roster by adding huge talents, are “charging” by adding solid contributors, remained “stagnant” by either keeping their roster similar or evenly adding and losing players, left their rosters “dwindling” by taking a slight step back talent-wise, or began “imploding” by losing crucial franchise cogs, i.e. being the Boston Celtics.

The third metric, which is also subjective, is the level of certainty there is as to how the team will perform this season. This is graded to three degrees and is easy to tell in most cases as well. We are “certain” the Heat’s current grouping will succeed. We consider it “likely” that Los Angeles will be unsuccessful with Nick Young and Wesley Johnson as serious contributors, but anything can happen with Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash on your team. We have no idea, however, how the Detroit Pistons will pan out with Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings added to the roster, making them an “unknown.”

Analyzing these three, relatively simple variables for a team gives us a good picture of how they’ll be next season. With that, here are my playoff predictions for this season, which will come true barring half the league’s best players going down with injury like last year.

EAST

1. Miami Heat — Stagnant dominance (Successful + Stagnant + Certain)

It’s stagnant success, but they won the championship, so let’s call it dominance. Feels more correct.

2. Chicago Bulls — Apex bound (Mediocre + Supercharged + Certain)

Chicago getting Rose back changes the East landscape completely. This crew will be at its pinnacle this season, likely Carlos Boozer’s last in Chicago.

3. Indiana Pacers — Establishing contendership (Successful + Charging + Certain)

Last year they were a Cinderella. This year, they’re the Pacers, and you’d better look out for them. They also bolstered their bench, which was their biggest weakness.

4. Brooklyn Nets — Risking it all (Successful + Supercharged + Unknown)

Are they the 2004 Lakers, the 2013 Lakers or the most dangerous team in the East? Right now it’s safe to keep them at fourth, but they could win the East or all this could backfire and they could be headed for trouble.

5. New York Knicks — Risking complacency (Successful + Dwindling + Likely)

It’s tough to see New York having a better season than last year, which can’t sit well with those fans.

6. Detroit Pistons — Last gasp (Bad + Supercharged + Unknown)

No tanking for Detroit. How will the frontcourt work? How will Brandon Jennings satisfy all those bigs?

7. Washington Wizards — Upward seeker (Bad + Charging + Likely)

A whole season of John Wall should land Washington in the playoffs. The Gortat addition should help as well.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers — Cinderella story (Bad + Supercharged + Likely)

If Andrew Bynum plays for them, he will be one of the biggest offseason additions. That’s a big “if,” though, in several ways.

9. Milwaukee Bucks — Pessimistic (Mediocre + Dwindling + Likely)

This team doesn’t really have an identity right now. Losing Jennings necessitates a change in culture, probably for the better, but what can they change it to?

10. Atlanta Hawks — Burning slowly (Mediocre + Dwindling + Certain)

This may be the only team I can remember in any sport that needs to have a losing season. Just let it go, Atlanta. Let it go.

11. Toronto Raptors — Stuck (Mediocre + Stagnant + Likely)

If their roster magically developed chemistry, the Raptors could make the playoffs. Too bad magic is really just chemistry, which as we’ve clarified, Toronto doesn’t have.

12. Charlotte Bobcats — Comfortably uncompetitive (Bad + Charging + Unknown)

It’s bad when you can add Al Jefferson to your roster and not worry about undermining your tanking plans.

13. Orlando Magic — Rebuilding (Bad + Charging + Certain)

The Magic’s rebound from Dwight Howard starts with a good season from Victor Oladipo.

14. Boston Celtics — Trenched terribility (Mediocre + Imploding + Certain)

This season will be a nightmare of Boston fans who lack patience.

15. Philadelphia 76ers — Rebuild ready (Mediocre + Imploding + Unknown)

Who knows how bad they can be? They might win the tanking contest for Andrew Wiggins. The lottery, however, is another issue.

WEST

1. San Antonio Spurs — Holding court (Successful + Stagnant + Likely)

Last season was San Antonio’s third straight year going out in disappointing fashion in the playoffs. How’d they bounce back those last two times? Better.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder — Leaving room (Successful + Dwindling + Certain)

They will need more scoring, and more of a defensive effort from their two stars. But they’re still the Thunder, and they’ll win a lot.

3. Los Angeles Clippers — Establishing contendership (Successful + Charging + Certain)

Their roster is stacked, but it depends on whether the frontcourt is good enough to compete for a title. Right now they’re in the same position they were last season — close, but not there.

4. Memphis Grizzlies — Holding court (Successful + Stagnant + Likely)

The Grizzlies are the same team that wasn’t good enough last year, save for an improved Mike Conley, an improved Marc Gasol, Mike Miller and a new coach, David Joerger.

5. Golden State Warriors — Establishing contendership (Successful + Charging + Likely)

How will Andre Iguodala mesh with this squad? He fits Mark Jackson’s defensive game plan, but Golden State may need another year to learn and grow.

6. Houston Rockets — Born contender (Mediocre + Supercharged + Likely)

Hard to put Houston this low, but let’s chalk it up to an adjustment period for Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson, when Houston trades New Orleans for him.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves — Playing to win (Mediocre + Charging + Likely)

Minnesota has been fun and competitive whenever it’s had Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio healthy. If they stay healthy, they’ll make the postseason.

8. New Orleans Pelicans — Upward seeker (Bad + Charging + Likely)

The Pellies (I stand by this nickname) could compete for a playoff spot, but their offseason moves could backfire. Also they should trade Anderson for Asik.

9. Denver Nuggets — Broken boxer (Successful + Imploding + Likely)

They’ll give it another whirl, but losing Iguodala hurts. Almost as much as losing Coach of the Year George Karl. Idiots.

10. Portland Trailblazers — Upward seeker (Mediocre + Charging + Unknown)

As Meyers Leonard falls back on the depth chart, Portland looks to its young core to improve a lot to earn a playoff spot.

11. Dallas Mavericks — Burning slowly (Mediocre + Dwindling + Certain)

Dirk Nowitzki is still good, and Monta Ellis can still score, but the Mavericks can no longer compete with the best of the Western Conference.

12. Los Angeles Lakers — Pessimistic (Mediocre + Dwindling + Likely)

The Lakers are going to be something this year. We just don’t know what that is. I don’t think anyone knows. But they’ll probably suck.

13. Sacramento Kings — Trenched terribility (Bad + Stagnant + Likely)

Sacramento beat Seattle to win the Kings. Winning NBA games against teams that exist — that’s another difficulty.

14. Utah Jazz — Trenched terribility (Mediocre + Imploding + Certain)

Utah is going to excel at tanking this season. Hopefully Utah will be an environment in which Trey Burke can thrive, despite the difficulties.

15. Phoenix Suns — Waiting for intervention (Bad + Stagnant + Unknown)

Phoenix traded Marcin Gortat away for a draft pick and hurt Emeka Okafor. Good move for the future, but it makes them the West’s worst team this season.