CHICAGO — Big Ten basketball is back.
The Big Ten boasts five ranked teams in the coaches poll despite losing some of the best players in the conference from a season ago: Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Victor Oladipo, Cody Zeller and Deshaun Thomas.
With the season almost underway, it’s time to hand out some preseason accolades.
Big Ten power rankings
“The big guns”
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1) Michigan State
2) Michigan
3) Ohio State
I’m not exactly making any bold predictions in this first group. The conference media voted the same way in their preseason poll.
Michigan State, who is ranked No. 2 in the nation, was a unanimous selection as the best team in the conference. The Spartans return four starters, including preseason Big Ten Player of the Year sophomore Gary Harris and preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection Adreian Payne.
Michigan and Ohio State aren’t far behind Michigan State, ranking 9th and 10th in the coaches poll, respectively. The Wolverines lost two first-round picks in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr., but potential 2014 lottery picks in Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary return from last year’s national runner-up.
The Buckeyes, like the Spartans, return four starters, but the one departure is Deshaun Thomas, who was a first-team All-Big Ten selection by the media and coaches.
“The sleeper contenders”
4) Wisconsin
5) Indiana
The Fighting Bo Ryans just won’t die. Jared Berggren, a second-team All-Big Ten selection by the coaches and media last season, departed from the best defense on a per-possession basis in the conference last season. Wisconsin’s lineup will feature some guys you’ve never heard of, but if Ryan’s coaching the Badgers, I’m not betting against them.
Indiana was only able to reach the Sweet 16 last season with top-five NBA draft picks in Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller. Sophomore point guard Yogi Ferrell is too young to carry this team far.
“Solid, but unspectacular”
6) Iowa
7) Illinois
8) Purdue
It’s weird putting Iowa this high on a non-wrestling related ranking, but they’re legit. Last season’s NIT runner-up returns every important player from that team, led by senior Roy Devyn Marble and junior Aaron White.
Illinois is a step above Purdue, but it’s close. Illinois depended on Brandon Paul heavily last season, and the Illini are still looking for their go-to player this season.
Purdue is going to rely on sophomore A.J. Hammons, who made the Big Ten All-Freshman team last season. Hammons is suspended for the team’s first three games, so it could get ugly fast for the Boilermakers.
“Not this year”
9) Penn State
10) Northwestern
11) Minnesota
12) Nebraska
I feel for these teams, I really do.
Penn State might actually be halfway decent this season but contending in the Big Ten still isn’t realistic. The Nittany Lions have the highest returning scorer in the conference from a season ago in D.J. Newbill (16.3 points per game), and he’s not even their best player (I’ll talk about this in detail later).
Chris Collins was a great hire for Northwestern, but he’s taking over a team that ranked last in the Big Ten in points per possession allowed in conference play (1.11). The return of senior guard Drew Crawford will help improve last season’s 10th-ranked offense in the Big Ten.
Minnesota and Nebraska are going to have ugly seasons. The Gophers lost physical front court players Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, but the hire of Richard Pitino provides some optimism heading into the season.
Nebraska has arguably the most entertaining head coach in the conference in Tim Miles, but he just doesn’t have the talent to compete in the Big Ten. Stick to football, Cornhuskers’ fans.
All-Big Ten first team
Tim Frazier, point guard, Penn State
Aaron Craft, point guard, Ohio State
Gary Harris, shooting guard, Michigan State
Sam Dekker, small forward, Wisconsin
Adreian Payne, power forward, Michigan State
The only changes I made to the media’s prediction for the All-Big Ten first team was the subtraction of the Michigan duo of McGary and Robinson III and the addition of Wisconsin’s Dekker.
Dekker is a smooth small forward who finished 10th in the conference with a 22.8 player efficiency rating during his freshman campaign. With Berggren gone, Dekker is going to put up big numbers and potentially bolt for the NBA lottery after two seasons in Madison, Wis.
Big Ten freshman of the year
Noah Vonleh, forward, Indiana
Vonleh, the No. 14 player of the 2013 class according to ESPN, figures to have a huge role during his freshman campaign with four of Indiana’s five starters not returning from last season.
Big Ten defensive player of the year
Aaron Craft, guard, Ohio State
Craft is the leading returner in defensive win shares from the Big Ten from a season ago at 2.6 (defensive win shares are the number of wins a player generates from his defense). Craft, a feisty, in-your-face defender, will lead the second-best defensive team during conference play from last season.
Big Ten coach of the year
Tom Izzo, Michigan State
It’s pretty simple logic. Michigan State is going to win a lot this year and Izzo is, well, Izzo. Much like Ryan last season, Izzo is going to get a lot of credit if the Spartans live up to their high expectations. He always seems to get the best out of his players when they’re seniors, and this year he has two great ones in Payne and point guard Keith Appling.
Big Ten player of the year
Tim Frazier, guard, Penn State
Yep, I said it. A Penn State player will win Big Ten Player of the Year.
This isn’t exactly a stretch of the imagination. Frazier was already an All-Big Ten first-team performer in 2012 and would’ve been last season if he hadn’t torn his Achilles tendon in the fourth game of the season.
Frazier led the nation in assist percentage at 45.3 during his last healthy season in 2012. The senior guard put up a nasty line during that campaign, averaging 18.8 points, 6.2 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.4 steals per game.
Craft, Harris, Payne and the Michigan duo will benefit from playing on better teams, but Frazier is primed for a Player of the Year caliber season.
Michael is a senior in Media. He can be reached at [email protected].