Illinois’ keys to an upset against Ohio State
January 23, 2014
It just doesn’t get any easier for Illinois.
The Illini, who are currently on a four-game losing skid, will head to Columbus, Ohio to face No. 17 Ohio State on Thursday. The Buckeyes, also losers of four straight games, have only fallen at home once this season. Here are some keys to the game for Illinois to pull off the upset on Thursday.
Early offense
Illinois has been brutal offensively in the first half of recent games. Illinois’ last four first half totals have been 25, 15 (against Northwestern, no less), 33 (this qualifies as an offensive explosion) and 25 points. You’re not going to beat any team, let alone Ohio State, with poor first halves like that.
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The Buckeyes have allowed 58.5 points per game, the eighth lowest mark in the country. Ohio State is stocked with defensive stalwarts in Aaron Craft, Amir Williams and the highly underrated Shannon Scott. If Illinois struggles out the gate offensively once again, it could get ugly.
Penetration is the key here. Illinois too often begins games by chucking up shots (see Rayvonte Rice) or draining the shot clock by over dribbling. Tracy Abrams and Rice need to start the game by driving inside and kicking the ball out to shooters. Illinois’ shot selection has lacked as of late, but early looks inside the paint could jump start the Illini’s subpar offense.
Defend the rim
Illinois allowed far too many layups against Michigan State on Saturday. The Spartans shot an outstanding 55.8 percent with many of their looks coming inside the paint. Illinois’ big men need to step up.
Nnanna Egwu had an encouraging start to his junior campaign, but his play inside the conference has been worrisome. The 6-foot-11 junior blocked two or more shots in 11 of Illinois’ 13 nonconference games while fouling four or more times in only two games in that span. Egwu has struggled in the Big Ten, having two games where he didn’t even block a shot while fouling at a ridiculously high rate (he has fouled four times in four of his last five games). It’s as if Egwu has regressed to his old fouling tendencies. The blame can’t all go on Egwu; someone else needs to step up as a rim protector.
Maverick Morgan, here’s your chance. Morgan hasn’t seen the court much this season, but the 6-foot-10 freshman is coming off a career-high 16 minutes against Michigan State. Egwu is going to need help defending Williams, who leads the Buckeyes with a 22.4 PER.
Ohio State has numerous weapons, including the highly-skilled LaQuinton Ross, so other guys are going to need to take some pressure off Egwu inside.
Move the ball
Ohio State loves stagnant offenses. If the likes of Rice, Abrams and Joseph Bertrand dribble the ball around on isolation attacks, look for the Buckeyes to pounce. Craft and Scott are among the best backcourt defenders in the conference, ranking first and third in the Big Ten in steals per game, respectively. Illinois needs to spread the ball around to avoid turnovers.
Illinois has been anything but a free-flowing offense so far this season. The Illini rank 323rd in the nation with 10.4 assists per game. To put that number in perspective, LIU Brooklyn’s Jason Brickman leads the nation with 9.5 assists per game. Don’t blame the lack of assists on John Groce’s offense. D.J. Cooper averaged 7.5 assists per game for a Groce-coached Ohio team in 2011. Abrams leads this year’s squad at a measly 3.4.
Illinois doesn’t have Brandon Paul to single-handedly defeat Ohio State, so a balanced offense attack is the better approach.
Limit Aaron Craft
Illinois needs to contain Craft on both ends of the floor. The senior point guard is one of those classic guys that opponents hate, but his team loves. Craft is just annoying. He’s constantly in your face, diving for balls left and right, while effectively running the offense.
Craft isn’t an NBA player, nor is he an NBA athlete, but he has an impact on the game on both ends of the floor as much as any player in the nation.
Abrams is already on a cold stretch, having shot under 40 percent four times in his last five games, and he hasn’t even faced a defender of the caliber of Craft. Illinois’ already heavy pick-and-roll offense will need to be in full force against the pesky Craft. Abrams won’t be able to beat Craft off the dribble consistently, so on-ball screens will be even more important in this one.
Defensively Abrams can’t let Craft blow past him. Craft is, well, crafty, and loves to get in the paint and use his penetration to set up his teammates. Groce usually avoids using double teams, but Craft might be an exception.
Michael is a senior in Media. He can be reached at
[email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @The_MDubb.