4 out of 5 pollsters won’t like this column
March 7, 2008
BREAKING NEWS: Seven out of 11.3 people we should listen to believe this over that. Fifty-nine percent of blah are now in favor of “fill in whatever here.” And as said in the film “Anchorman,” “They’ve done studies, you know. Sixty percent of the time, it works every time.”
Opinion polls seem to be everywhere these days. They pop up in the news to show the general consensus on everything from elections to approvals to just about anything that begs for an opinion to be voiced. It’s reached the point where you’d expect an episode of Schoolhouse Rock to have Mr. Opine, a friendly poll.
The real question we’re faced with seems to be what percentage of faith should we have in these hard-hitting opinion polls?
A few weeks ago, The Associated Press released a report on a recent opinion poll about the current state of Pakistan. A survey conducted for the United States-based Terror Free Tomorrow organization found that the number of Osama bin Laden and Taliban sympathizers has fallen drastically and that more Pakistanis are seeking peaceful refuge in opposition groups after a recent rough patch of political unrest and terrorist activity.
In the last six months alone, support for al-Qaida fell from 33 to 18 percent, the Taliban plummeted from 38 to 19 percent, and Osama bin Laden’s approval rating dropped from 46 to a meager 24 percent.
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Don’t worry, there are plenty more numbers for you to crunch.
If al-Qaida were to enter the Democratic primary, err, Pakistan’s parliamentary elections, they would only garner 1 percent of the entire vote, compared to the Taliban’s 3 percent.
If those numbers aren’t making you dizzy, try these.
More than 60 percent through the article, I found some slightly unsettling information. The survey was based on interviews with 1,157 Pakistanis. Pakistan’s population is estimated to be about 164,741,924. That means the poll representing the current state of a country amid a wave of unrest was based on opinions of less than 1 percent of the people there.
And that’s precisely the problem with these polls. While only a fraction of populations participate in the study, the percentages are presented to us as if they are news.
Stories like that of The Associated Press appear to be official reports that take all variables into account. There is always an emphasis on the percentages that believe something over the amount of people actually interviewed. The numbers clearly divide an opinion and are universally understood.
Attach a bold attention-grabbing headline, throw in an elaborate graph and a riveting image and finally, splash on some bright colors. Before long, people are hooked to your story and are able to get a notion of what is most likely to happen.
Or not.
In this year’s New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary, early polls predicted that Barack Obama had the victory locked up. When the votes were tallied, it turned out that “comeback kid” Hillary Clinton was the miraculous winner.
But it’s not entirely the media’s fault. We need to be constantly in the know. Think about how fast we get news, with up to the minute updates and breaking reports. And sometimes the polls can be useful, but they are hardly a fool-proof system.
Imagine that you receive a phone call during dinner:
“Hey, how ya doin’? I’m with the American Poll Opinion Organization, and we’d like to ask you a few questions about the upcoming election.”
“Uhh, I’m kind of in the middle.”
“Thanks, we appreciate it. Now, if you could please answer the following 75 questions with short, one-word answers.”
“Look, I really don’t.”
“Question one, would you rather vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama if they ran against John McCain?
The longer this awkward and irritating conversation goes on, the more chance there is for a response of Ron Paul or Osama bin Laden being spit out. But of course, 9.2 out of 10 opinion pollers would say that isn’t a bad answer, it’s just data.
Sujay is a junior in biochemistry and thinks that Schoolhouse Rock’s Mr. Bill is creepy.